Gold price in Dubai remains stable amid rising oil prices and expectations of an Fed rate hike
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Khaleej Times
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Gold price in Dubai remains stable amid rising oil prices and expectations of an Fed rate hike

On Tuesday morning, gold prices in Dubai showed no changes as rising oil prices combined with expectations of a US Federal Reserve interest rate hike this week put pressure on the precious metal.

At the opening of trading on Tuesday, a 24-karat gold bar was priced at 518.75 dirhams per gram. Other varieties—22K, 21K, 18K, and 14K—traded at prices of 480.50, 460.50, 394.75, and 308 dirhams, respectively.

The global spot price for gold stood at $4304 per ounce, declining by 0.18 percent. Silver traded at $63.26 per ounce, showing a drop of 0.62 percent.

Financial analyst and Investment Director at Century Financial, Vijay Valecha, attributed the rise in oil prices to the postponement of a planned meeting between Iran and several Persian Gulf countries aimed at establishing a temporary shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz. He also noted that the shutdown of the Saudi 'East-West' pipeline over the weekend intensified this pressure.

Valecha explained that the crisis in the Middle East caused an inflationary impulse in the global economy, triggering a rise in crude oil, natural gas, and petroleum products, including diesel fuel. He added that even before the pipeline attack, oil production from the kingdom was under pressure. Recently, Riyadh informed OPEC that its crude oil production last month reached its lowest level since 1990.

Following US data indicating an acceleration in price growth in August, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise rates this week, which will negatively affect gold prices. Nevertheless, from a technical standpoint, gold is forming a triangular pattern on the hourly chart. It should be noted that the metal faces technical weakness in the support zone of $4310–$4325. A break below the $4310 level could trigger a bearish move towards $4225, while a rebound from this level could support a bullish sentiment.

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Gold price in UAE drops to 522 dirhams per gram amid strengthening US dollar
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Gold price in UAE drops to 522 dirhams per gram amid strengthening US dollar

Gold prices slightly decreased in Dubai and the UAE on Friday morning. According to data from Dubai Jewellery Group, 24K and 22K precious metal options traded at 522 and 438.5 dirhams per gram, respectively, when the market opened on Friday morning.

The price of 24K gold fell by almost 38 dirhams per gram since August 25th. Among other varieties, 21K, 18K, and 14K dropped to 463.5, 397.25, and 310 dirhams per gram, respectively.

The spot gold rate was $4331 per ounce, which is 0.8 percent lower. Silver decreased by 1.1 percent to $63.6 per ounce.

Simon-Peter Massabni, Head of Business Development at xs.com, noted that gold is undergoing a sharp correction during Thursday's trading. This pressure is caused by the strengthening of the US dollar, rising Treasury yields, and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain restrictive monetary policy.

He explained that one of the key factors in the decline was the recovery of US Treasury yields. The yield on 10-year bonds returned to 4.90 percent. In contrast, long-term rates remained under pressure after the US government's plan to buy up to $6 billion in long-term debt was lower than some market participants expected. Higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, which does not generate interest.

Furthermore, the dollar regained ground against major world currencies after recent trading at a two-week low. The combination of higher rates and expectations of sustained high interest rates has once again increased the relative attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets. For gold, a stronger dollar is usually a negative factor because it makes the metal more expensive for investors using other currencies.

Adding to these factors was a sharp rise in oil prices. Brent crude oil once again exceeded the $100 per barrel threshold and traded above $105 during the session, while WTI also rose above $100.

Geopolitical tensions and energy supply risks in the Middle East continue to support high prices, while simultaneously fueling concerns about a new wave of energy-related inflation. Massabni added that the oil rally creates a complex environment for gold. Although geopolitical tension usually supports demand for safe-haven assets, keeping oil prices above $100 may force major central banks to keep interest rates higher for longer. In the short term, this effect outweighs the safe-haven demand, creating additional pressure on precious metals.

Gold prices in Dubai continue to fall, losing 39 dirhams in 9 days
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Gold prices in Dubai continue to fall, losing 39 dirhams in 9 days

Gold prices continued to decline as the precious metal lost more than 3 dirhams per gram at the start of trading on Wednesday.

According to data from Dubai Jewellery Group, the price of 24-karat gold fell to 519.25 dirhams per gram on Wednesday morning, compared to 522 dirhams per gram after Tuesday's trading. Over nine days, the price dropped by almost 39 dirhams per gram.

Similarly, prices for 22, 21, 18, and 14-karat gold decreased to 480.75, 461.0, 395.0, and 308.25 dirhams per gram, respectively.

Spot gold fell below the $4400 mark, trading at $4304 per ounce, which represents a loss of approximately one percent at the start of trading.

Simon-Peter Massabni, Head of Business Development at xs.com, noted that pressure on gold has returned amid the increased influence of high treasury bond yields. These high rates continue to create a high alternative cost, which prevents gold from recovering at the pace observed previously.

He explained that renewed clashes in the Middle East, along with growing pessimism regarding future monetary policy of the Federal Reserve for the remainder of the year, kept yields at a high level.

Following Kevin Warsh's pessimistic remarks in Jackson Hole on Friday, the market began favoring more pessimistic interest rate scenarios. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed raising rates by more than half a percentage point is nearly 47 percent.

Warsh generally explained that inflation risks remain high and monetary conditions are not tight enough, which contributed to the resumption of strong negative influence from high yields.

Massabni added that this trend worsened due to new clashes between the US and Iran, when the US struck two launch sites on Lark Island.

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