Although improved weather forecasts can help pastoralists prepare for intensifying droughts, a new study indicates the limited effectiveness of these forecasts if vulnerable households lack the means to respond to warnings.
An international group of researchers, led by the University of Sydney and Imperial College London, argues that combining climate information with measures such as fodder for livestock, drought insurance, targeted financial aid, and improved market access can protect some of the poorest pastoralist communities in Southern Africa from climate shocks.
This study, published in the journal Nature Sustainability, comes amid regional preparations for the potential impact of a powerful El Niño event.
Forecasts alone are insufficient
Lead researcher Dr. Matt Clark noted that the problem is not simply the lack of access to climate information, but the limited capacity of poorer farmers to react to it.
Clark stated: 'If the forecasts prove correct, and we see the development of an almost record El Niño, we expect this will exacerbate inequality on Southern African pastures.' While well-off livestock owners can sell animals before drought conditions worsen and then rebuild their herds, poor herders often do not have the financial resources to reduce herd size or buy additional feed.
This forces them to keep livestock on increasingly degraded pastures, increasing the risk of animal death and further loss of household welfare. The consequences can extend beyond individual families, affecting food security, livelihoods, and the health of fragile pastures.
The researchers emphasize that practical support enables farmers to act on forecasts before the drought hits, potentially reducing both economic losses and environmental damage.
Combining adaptation measures
The team used detailed modeling to examine how pastoralist households in Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, and Zimbabwe might respond to increasing rainfall variability.
Researchers integrated projected precipitation data from European climate models with information on livestock, vegetation, and household welfare. Their first simulation scenario, based on the status quo, showed that greater rainfall variability could lead to reduced household welfare, increased livestock losses, grassland degradation, and widening inequality.
In the second simulation scenario, various adaptation measures were tested. Climate forecasts alone provided only modest benefits, as many poor households could not afford to utilize this information. Risk mitigation measures could also cause environmental trade-offs.
However, when climate information was combined with practical and financial support, researchers found that households cope better with drought preparedness while simultaneously reducing pressure on pastures. The model also suggested that adaptation could spread between neighboring communities, as farmers learn from each other and adopt successful strategies.
Dr. Gina Arena from the Conservation International's Herding for Health initiative noted that growing climate uncertainty increases the risks faced by pastoralist communities. She added that research can help identify effective solutions while simultaneously mitigating the risks associated with their implementation.
The researchers conclude that this approach does not necessarily require new technologies; instead, existing forecasting systems must be integrated with programs that provide vulnerable communities with resources to respond. Clark also noted that this framework could be applied outside of Southern Africa, including Australia and other regions where livestock producers face increasingly unpredictable rainfall. The findings underscore the broader issue of climate change adaptation: early warnings save lives and livelihoods only when the recipients have the resources to act.
