International oil prices have reached four-month highs. On Monday, global oil prices saw a sharp increase, with the price of Brent crude exceeding $107 per barrel. This rise was triggered by escalating tensions in the Middle East, which intensified concerns about potential disruptions to global energy supplies.
According to AFP data, the price of Brent crude with November delivery increased by 2.8% to $107.54 per barrel. Meanwhile, the American benchmark West Texas Intermediate with October delivery rose by 2.3%, reaching $102.34. Brent is now at a four-month high after a week-long surge of 9%, surpassing the $100 threshold for the first time since July.
The market continues to closely monitor the Middle East as new security issues threaten key export routes. Saudi Arabia temporarily halted its east-to-west pipeline after drone attacks in the region. Furthermore, Iranian authorities reported that a commercial vessel was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, resulting in one fatality and three injuries.
The strait was previously free for transit before the war, but Iran now requires vessels to obtain permission before crossing and is considering imposing service fees. Vessels that do not comply with these requirements are regularly targeted by Iranian attacks, adding uncertainty to the global oil supply situation. Moreover, Oman has postponed negotiations between Iran and Gulf states regarding the future of this strategic waterway.
Fuel price increase in October
Oil price volatility makes it difficult to accurately forecast fuel prices for October. Nevertheless, the latest information from the Central Energy Fund indicates a possible rise in gasoline prices to 2.29 rials next month, while diesel fuel is projected to increase by at least 2.22 rials. Forecasts suggest that record high prices for gasoline and diesel in October are highly probable: 95 Unleaded gasoline could rise to approximately 28.19 rials on the coast and 29.21 rials in Gauteng, significantly exceeding previous records of 27.19 and 28.06 rials. Diesel fuel will follow suit, with its wholesale price expected to rise to at least 31.76 rials, higher than the previous maximum of 30.62 rials. This increase follows a sharp rise in September, when both types of gasoline increased by 1.34 rials per liter, and diesel fuel increased by 2.94–3.15 rials.
Possible suspension of peace agreement in the Middle East?
Last week, US President Donald Trump predicted that the war with Iran would end immediately after the midterm elections in November. He claimed that Tehran was prolonging the conflict to influence voting and stated that fuel prices would not drop until then. Bianca Botes, Managing Director of Citadel Global, noted: 'The forecast raises skepticism, given that when the campaign started on February 28th, it was expected to last only a few weeks, but now the market has a political date tied to military escalation that has lasted eight weeks without any steps toward de-escalation.'