The climate phenomenon El Niño, developing in the tropical Pacific Ocean thousands of kilometers from the UAE, could potentially influence weather conditions in the coming months, although experts caution against assuming it will automatically lead to extreme conditions in the Emirates.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts a high probability—almost one hundred percent—that El Niño will persist until February 2027. Furthermore, American meteorologists estimate over a ninety percent chance that this phenomenon will reach a strong level during the autumn-winter period of the Northern Hemisphere.
The country's National Center for Meteorology (NCM) seeks to refute alarming reports circulating online, emphasizing that the impact of El Niño varies by region and does not automatically translate into extreme weather within the country.
El Niño represents a warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—a natural climate pattern associated with changes in ocean temperature and atmospheric circulation in the tropical Pacific Ocean. During El Niño, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become abnormally high. Associated changes in trade winds and atmospheric circulation can shift precipitation and temperature patterns by thousands of kilometers.
El Niño occurs irregularly, typically every two to seven years, and lasts about nine to twelve months, although individual events can last longer. It usually develops between March and June and reaches peak intensity between November and February.
The current event is particularly noteworthy because ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific have risen sharply. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently reported that sea surface temperature anomalies in some parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific exceeded 3°C, and the Niño 3.4 index was 1.8°C.
The impact of El Niño is not universal; it depends on geography, season, and interaction with other climatic factors, including the Indian Ocean Dipole (a climate pattern describing the difference in sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern parts of the Indian Ocean).
In Southeast Asia, the Specialized Meteorological Centre (SMC) states that El Niño generally increases the likelihood of reduced rainfall, especially over parts of the Maritime Continent. Higher than normal temperatures are also expected in the region during September–November 2026.
South Asia may also face weaker monsoon rains during El Niño years. India has already experienced a deficient monsoon in 2026, and September rainfall is a growing concern. The Indian government notes that El Niño generally negatively affects the summer monsoon, especially towards the end of the season.
Meanwhile, in the Horn of Africa, El Niño is associated with a higher probability of wetter-than-usual conditions during the October to December rainy season. American regions also show characteristic shifts, including increased rainfall in some southern US states and changes in precipitation across South America. However, these are more regional trends than guarantees for individual countries.
El Niño also exacerbates an already extremely warm global climate. Data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) confirms that August 2026 was the hottest August on record, although scientists also emphasize that anthropogenic climate change remains the dominant factor in long-term global warming.
Since the UAE is far from the Pacific Ocean, El Niño does not directly determine daily weather in the country. Instead, its influence reaches the region through large-scale atmospheric connections. NCM meteorologist Ahmed Habib previously told Khaleej Times this year that the impact of El Niño on the UAE is expected to become more noticeable in the autumn, particularly in October and November.
