Western Cape warns of hotter summer and increased fire risk amid strengthening El Niño

According to data from the EU climate monitor, August 2026 was the hottest month in Copernicus's observation history, matching July 2023 in temperature readings. Furthermore, global ocean temperatures and summer in Western Europe also reached record levels.

In response to this assessment, the UN Climate Service warned that as long as humanity does not abandon fossil fuels, the planet will move deeper into uncharted territory.

Copernicus observations cover the period since 1940, but other data sources, such as ice cores, tree rings, and coral skeletons, allow scientists to relate modern climate to a much longer historical context. Samantha Burgess of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, who oversees Copernicus, told AFP that people have not seen temperatures as high as current ones possibly for at least the last 100,000 years.

Copernicus reported that the average global air temperature in August was 16.96°C, exceeding the previous monthly record set in July 2023 by only 0.01°C. Given this small difference, Copernicus considers both months jointly the warmest.

Scientists argue that human activity, primarily the burning of coal, oil, and gas, has led to the planet warming by approximately 1.4°C compared to the pre-industrial period, and has also increased the probability and severity of extreme weather events. Nevertheless, greenhouse gas emissions that trap heat reached new highs in 2025.

UN Chief Climate Specialist Simon Stiel commented on the Copernicus report, stating: 'The evidence is irrefutable: it is a spiral increase in the price of humanity's dependence on fossil fuels and the global climate crisis it fuels.'

Period of High Temperature

The sea surface temperature also set a new daily maximum and matched the August record, extending a three-month series of record ocean warming. Over 90 percent of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gas emissions has been absorbed by the oceans, which saved the land from warming but brought serious consequences for marine life, reefs, and coastal communities.

Records fell in overheated basins such as the Atlantic and Mediterranean, as well as in the tropical Pacific Ocean, where the strongest El Niño weather pattern of the modern era is rapidly gaining strength. These events are characterized by unusually warm water in the Pacific but increase the likelihood of severe weather thousands of miles away from these areas—from floods in Peru to droughts in Africa and wildfires in Australia.

The natural climate cycle phase, El Niño episodes, usually cause a temporary spike in global temperatures that are already elevated by long-term background warming. Scientists expect records to continue falling in the coming months as this 'super' El Niño approaches peak intensity around December, and 2027—and possibly 2026—will be the hottest years in observational history.

Frédérique Otto, a climatologist from Imperial College London, noted: 'Climate change is making every El Niño hotter, and until we stop burning coal, oil, and gas, these record-breaking months will simply keep appearing.'

Excess Mortality

Copernicus also noted that August marked the end of the hottest summer in Western Europe, surpassing the long-standing 2003 record. The season from June to August was characterized by strong, persistent heatwaves, which led to school closures, river low flows, and preparation of land for devastating wildfires.

According to estimates from the EuroMomo continental monitoring platform, over 32,000 cases of excess mortality were recorded in Europe between mid-July and mid-August. Scientists from the World Weather Attribution network concluded that the particularly intense heatwave in June would have been 'practically impossible' without the influence of climate change.

However, abnormal heat was felt worldwide. On Wednesday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced that the US had recorded its hottest consecutive summer in history. Furthermore, according to an analysis of Copernicus data conducted by AFP, regions inhabited by about 900 million people experienced the hottest July ever observed.

Burgess, an oceanographer and strategic director at ECMWF, stated: 'We had an exceptional summer—not only in Europe but in other parts of the world where records that existed for almost a century collapsed.' She added that the climate 'will become increasingly extreme if we do not turn off the tap of global emissions.'

Farmers have been advised to use water judiciously, conserve soil moisture, and prepare livestock for potentially dry and hot conditions associated with the El Niño phenomenon.

South Africa's agricultural sector is preparing for a potentially challenging summer as El Niño conditions are expected to lead to reduced rainfall and increased temperatures across various parts of the country.

The Ministry of Agriculture has warned that this weather pattern could place significant strain on crops and livestock, strongly advising farmers to take proactive measures to conserve water resources, protect soil moisture, and prevent overgrazing.

El Niño is expected to last throughout the summer

According to the South African Weather Service's Seasonal Climate Outlook released on August 31st, El Niño is occurring and is expected to persist through the 2026/27 summer season. The Ministry noted that El Niño is a natural climate pattern that causes shifts in global atmospheric circulation. In South Africa, typical El Niño consequences include lower than usual summer rainfall combined with high temperatures.

This warning comes despite relatively favorable conditions in the previous summer season. The Ministry reported that increased rainfall during the 2025/26 summer improved reservoir levels and soil moisture in most summer-rainfall areas.

However, the transition to the new season does not follow the usual pattern in some regions. As indicated by the department, typically after the end of the winter season and the start of spring, rainfall is observed in all areas receiving summer rains. Nevertheless, this is not the case, especially when low rainfall and high temperatures are forecast, particularly during El Niño.

Crops face risk of crop failure

The department warned that farmers may face a combination of drought conditions and heat stress, which could have serious consequences for agricultural production. The Ministry emphasized that El Niño conditions in agriculture can lead to reduced rainfall and high temperatures, potentially causing drought and heat stress.

It was cautioned that such conditions contribute to crop and livestock mortality, especially when farmers have not implemented risk mitigation measures. Farmers were also alerted to secondary effects of water scarcity, including restrictions that could affect irrigated farming. Other issues include an increased risk of pests and diseases associated with hotter weather.

Farmers urged to conserve soil moisture

Agricultural farmers were advised to employ smart farming methods and avoid unjustified expansion of cultivated areas. The department encouraged the use of tools aligned with sustainable agriculture principles to conserve soil moisture and reduce erosion.

Farmers were also recommended to select appropriate varieties resistant to heat and drought, and to adhere to recommended planting times. Furthermore, they were instructed to use varieties listed in the National Variety List in accordance with the Plant Improvement Act.

Water shortage may affect irrigated farmers

Given the anticipated increased pressure on water resources, the department called on farmers to conserve this natural resource. Water harvesting techniques and more efficient irrigation systems, including drip irrigation, were recommended. Farmers were also advised to irrigate during periods when water loss is minimal.

The Ministry constantly urges farmers to irrigate at times conducive to water conservation, such as morning or evening, and to comply with local water usage restrictions.

Livestock producers warned against overstocking

Livestock producers also received an urgent recommendation to prepare for deteriorating pasture conditions. The department insists that farmers maintain herd sizes within the carrying capacity of pastures and available feed. It was warned that overgrazing can lead to excessive grazing, exacerbating drought consequences and increasing the likelihood of animal deaths.

Proposed measures include rotational grazing, supplementary feeding, and ensuring sufficient watering points.

Heat may trigger pests and diseases

The expected hot conditions may also create a favorable environment for certain pests and diseases, prompting the department to urge farmers to remain vigilant. Farmers are advised to conduct regular inspections and implement control measures where necessary. This includes routine veterinary checks and livestock vaccination.

The department stated that farmers must closely monitor weather and climate information provided by the South African Weather Service and respond to early warnings. It also reported that it will continue to monitor conditions and provide updates through monthly briefings and daily extreme weather alerts. Additionally, national and provincial agricultural bodies will collaborate with stakeholders to raise awareness and assist farmers in understanding and utilizing early warning information to mitigate disaster risks.

The large El Niño expected in the Pacific Ocean could lead to hotter and drier conditions in many parts of South Africa this summer, raising concerns about heatwaves, drought, and water shortages.

South Africa is preparing for a warmer and drier season as the South African Weather Service (SAWS) warns that the powerful El Niño phenomenon developing in the Pacific Ocean could be the strongest on record, increasing the risk of drought, severe heatwaves, and water scarcity in the region.

SAWS reported that El Niño 2026/27 has already reached a very strong event level and is expected to intensify in the spring.

Ocean Temperature Rise

According to SAWS data, ocean temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific are already exceeding the threshold used to classify El Niño as very strong. SAWS explained that a strong El Niño is a phenomenon where three-month average sea surface temperature anomalies over the east-central tropical Pacific exceed 1.5°C relative to climate, while for a very strong El Niño, this part of the ocean is 2°C warmer than normal.

The service warned that the latest forecasts indicate a possibility of exceeding this threshold by 3°C. SAWS notes that most El Niño events are associated with reduced rainfall and increased temperatures in South Africa, although the weather pattern does not guarantee drought with every such event.

Water Availability Concerns

SAWS's latest seasonal forecast for October to December 2026 predicts below-average rainfall across most of South Africa, accompanied by above-average temperatures. This same scenario is expected in January 2027, when most countries forecast drier and warmer conditions.

SAWS stated that the expected temperatures could significantly exceed historical thresholds for the October to December period. While this forecast raises concerns regarding water supply and agricultural conditions, SAWS emphasized that El Niño events can have varied regional outcomes. It was noted that the very strong El Niño of 1997/98 was associated with slightly above-average rainfall in some areas of South Africa's summer rainy season, so it should be considered that although the statistically most likely outcome in South Africa this summer is reduced rainfall, not every El Niño event leads to drought.

Potential for Severe Heatwaves

SAWS warned that the potential impact of the current El Niño could be amplified by ongoing global warming. The weather service noted that 2027 could be the hottest year on record if the expected very strong El Niño develops as forecasted. The 2015/16 El Niño was also mentioned, which was linked to unprecedented heatwaves in South Africa, and the warning that the region has continued to warm since then.

SAWS stated that if the 2026/27 El Niño event brings the expected reduction in rainfall to South Africa, it is highly likely that it will coincide frequently with severe heatwaves. The combination of reduced rainfall and extreme heat can increase pressure on already vulnerable water resources and weather-sensitive sectors.

Despite the alarming forecast, the weather service cautioned that uncertainty remains regarding the ultimate strength of El Niño and how its consequences will be distributed regionally. SAWS stated that it will continue to monitor the situation and inform disaster management agencies, weather-sensitive industries, the media, and the public. The public is strongly advised to track both seasonal and daily forecasts to prepare for possible heatwaves and other high-impact weather events.