Milad Kalume Neto, a mechanical engineer with almost 23 years of experience at Jato Dynamics Brazil, a consultancy focused on collecting and analyzing data on registrations, prices, and vehicle specifications in over 55 nations, founded his own consultancy in 2025.
In partnership with Máia Màrtins, he established K.LUME Consultoria, a company dedicated to providing strategic analyses and crucial information for various sectors linked to the automotive industry, including manufacturers, dealerships, merchants, and rental companies.
In a recent article, Kalume raised relevant points about the rapid advance of 16 Chinese brands in the Brazilian market, although other sources suggest this number could reach 18 or even 19, including sub-brands that cover practically all niches in the national market.
He observed that only compact pickup trucks, such as Strada, Saveiro, and Montana, are not yet facing direct competition. Kalume emphasized the importance that Chinese cars, despite selling well, need to demonstrate good durability over time.
Challenges posed by global competition
The expert warned about the intense price war occurring in China, driven by excess production capacity. This situation led the central Chinese government, described as undemocratic, to mandate exports at any cost, generating significant pressure on brands already established in Brazil.
Kalume outlined three possible scenarios for the period between 2026 and 2032. The first scenario, which is already underway, shows an accelerated increase in the participation of Chinese companies. In the second, some brands manage to establish themselves, while others become marginal or leave the Brazilian market. The third scenario predicts a possible reduction in certain operations.
Market projection
From K.LUME's perspective, the central scenario indicates that the presence of Chinese brands could represent between 33% and 36% of sales volume in Brazil by 2032, equivalent to about one vehicle in every three sold. Thus, the primary issue, according to the expert, will not be the total number of Chinese brands entering the country, but rather how many of them will manage to maintain their presence, grow, and convert sales into lasting loyalty.