A serious crisis has emerged for India, which, despite being approximately 3000 kilometers away, could cause significant problems for the country. This concerns the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, located on the Yemeni Red Sea coast. Fierce attacks lasting about 18 hours allowed Iran-backed Houthi rebels to approach control over this vital sea route.
This issue is particularly important for India, alongside other global powers, as the country relies on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for importing crude oil and other petroleum products, as well as for delivering goods to Europe. Any disruption in this system could lead to a substantial increase in prices for gasoline, diesel fuel, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) within the country.
If the Houthis seize control of the Bab el-Mandeb, it could disrupt crucial oil supplies to India. Currently, following the start of the war between the US and Iran, serious disruptions in the supply of petroleum products from Persian Gulf countries are already being observed. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait has always served as a key global maritime route for oil and other petroleum products. Oil from Saudi Arabia, loaded onto tankers at western ports including Jeddah and Yanbu, passes through the Bab el-Mandeb to reach Asian markets via the Arabian Sea.
The Bab el-Mandeb is a narrow stretch of sea, 29 kilometers long, located in the Red Sea between Yemen and Djibouti. It connects the Mediterranean Sea with the Indian Ocean via the Suez Canal. Ships carrying refined fuel, medicines, equipment, and other goods regularly use this strait to arrive at major European ports such as Rotterdam in the Netherlands and Marseille in France.
Approximately 5% to 12% of all global maritime trade in oil and gas passes through the Bab el-Mandeb, corresponding to supplies of 4 to 5 million barrels daily. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is as critical a choke point as the Strait of Hormuz, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and subsequently to the Indian Ocean. Interruptions in this area could paralyze global maritime transport, leading to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, which would be a problem for India as well.
The situation in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is not unprecedented; it has previously attracted significant attention. This strait, one of the busiest sea routes, functions as the southern entrance to the Suez Canal and accounts for about 10–12% of world maritime trade, including a significant share of energy supplies. Previously, Iranian media, citing Al-Farah, reported suggesting that in the event of a blockage of this route, international crude oil prices could reach $200 per barrel.
It is important to understand why the Bab el-Mandeb is of special significance to India. Over 85% of India's oil needs are met through imports, and the country depends on West Asia and parts of North Africa for importing crude oil and LNG after the Strait of Hormuz. This sea route, controlled by Yemen, is as important to India as the Strait of Hormuz, as private and state Indian refineries send petroleum products to European buyers daily via this route.
Since about 95% of India's trade is conducted by sea, the Bab el-Mandeb serves as a vital entry point for exports to Europe, North America, and North Africa. Together with the Suez Canal and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, they account for about 35% of India's total foreign trade turnover. Large shipments of export goods, such as textiles, clothing, medicines, equipment, and agricultural products, including basmati rice, pass through this corridor. Approximately 80% of Indian goods destined for export to Europe pass through the Red Sea region.