The Springboks, led by Rassie Erasmus, are poised to achieve a dominant victory over the All Blacks. The fourth match of the 'Great Rivalry' rugby series is approaching, and signs indicate that the Springboks will have their first 80-minute match in this series and will heavily defeat the All Blacks.
The Great Rugby Rivalry
The Springbok team possesses momentum and confidence. They are in their eighth year under Rassie Erasmus and have established a habit of recovering from setbacks and performing strongly in major tournaments, such as two World Cups and the British & Irish Lions series.
This pattern is repeating itself in the 'Great Rivalry' matches. Although the Springboks lost the first match, they responded with wins in the subsequent two games and appear to have learned how to exert constant pressure on the All Blacks.
In contrast, New Zealand is only in the third month of Dave Rennie's era and is still learning on the fly. The Springboks clearly know their goals, whereas the All Blacks are still searching for their path.
All Blacks Have Suffered Mental and Physical Losses
In the match in Kalabaas, the All Blacks gave everything, leaving nothing on the field and giving South Africa everything they had, yet they still suffered a defeat. The score of 29-24 may underestimate the significance for New Zealand, and they are aware of this. More seriously, three of their key players have sustained injuries, notably their talisman Ardie Savea.
The importance of Savea to the All Blacks cannot be overstated—he is not only a world-class player but also a center of cohesion, an inspiring captain who leads by example. His absence creates a huge gap.
The Springbok attack is putting pressure on New Zealand. The dominance of the Springbok forwards was reportedly hindered by an overly meticulous approach to the scrum in the second match. However, last week, Nick Amashukeli allowed the teams to interact more freely, similar to how Matthew Carlie did in the first match.
The result was telling: the All Black forwards began spending more time moving backward. Signs suggest that Karl Dixon from England will again allow the forwards to compete honorably for the scrum in the fourth match. If this happens, the All Blacks will face a serious problem, as the authority of the Springbok forwards grows as the series progresses, and the pressure inevitably exerts physical and psychological impact.
The All Blacks are experiencing a shortage of personnel. At the start of the series, Erasmus noted that the All Blacks players accumulated about 60 minutes more per person during the World Cup than their Springbok counterparts. This is partly because Erasmus rotated his squad widely during the tournament, while Rennie did not have such an opportunity.
Now the consequences are becoming clear. Over seven matches in the RGR, several players from the All Blacks' first team were forced to return home: from early casualties Billy Proctor and Kalaba Clark to Savea, Quinn Tupai, and Luca Jakobsen. Rennie was forced to make significant changes for the fourth match, including eight newcomers in the matchday squad. This is a large number of changes for a team aiming to win a match of this magnitude.
Springboks Have Gained Speed
This series has been very intense, but when the third match reached critical moments, it was South Africa that managed to find extra pace. Jesse Kriel's try changed the course of the game, and the Springboks sealed the victory. They won two consecutive matches and, crucially, demonstrated how to finish a competition of this level.
The All Blacks must win in Baltimore to level the series score. This might seem like an advantage for New Zealand, but psychologically, it could work in reverse. The Springboks cannot afford to lose the series, so they can play with the confidence of a team that has already proven its point, and with the freedom that comes from not needing to prove anything.
If South Africa can replicate something like their rout of the All Blacks with a score of 43-10 in Wellington last year, Baltimore could become another memorable chapter in the Great Rivalry.
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