Springboks ready for any conditions in the decisive series match against All Blacks in Baltimore

The Springboks, led by Rassie Erasmus, are poised to achieve a dominant victory over the All Blacks. The fourth match of the 'Great Rivalry' rugby series is approaching, and signs indicate that the Springboks will have their first 80-minute match in this series and will heavily defeat the All Blacks.

The Great Rugby Rivalry

The Springbok team possesses momentum and confidence. They are in their eighth year under Rassie Erasmus and have established a habit of recovering from setbacks and performing strongly in major tournaments, such as two World Cups and the British & Irish Lions series.

This pattern is repeating itself in the 'Great Rivalry' matches. Although the Springboks lost the first match, they responded with wins in the subsequent two games and appear to have learned how to exert constant pressure on the All Blacks.

In contrast, New Zealand is only in the third month of Dave Rennie's era and is still learning on the fly. The Springboks clearly know their goals, whereas the All Blacks are still searching for their path.

All Blacks Have Suffered Mental and Physical Losses

In the match in Kalabaas, the All Blacks gave everything, leaving nothing on the field and giving South Africa everything they had, yet they still suffered a defeat. The score of 29-24 may underestimate the significance for New Zealand, and they are aware of this. More seriously, three of their key players have sustained injuries, notably their talisman Ardie Savea.

The importance of Savea to the All Blacks cannot be overstated—he is not only a world-class player but also a center of cohesion, an inspiring captain who leads by example. His absence creates a huge gap.

The Springbok attack is putting pressure on New Zealand. The dominance of the Springbok forwards was reportedly hindered by an overly meticulous approach to the scrum in the second match. However, last week, Nick Amashukeli allowed the teams to interact more freely, similar to how Matthew Carlie did in the first match.

The result was telling: the All Black forwards began spending more time moving backward. Signs suggest that Karl Dixon from England will again allow the forwards to compete honorably for the scrum in the fourth match. If this happens, the All Blacks will face a serious problem, as the authority of the Springbok forwards grows as the series progresses, and the pressure inevitably exerts physical and psychological impact.

The All Blacks are experiencing a shortage of personnel. At the start of the series, Erasmus noted that the All Blacks players accumulated about 60 minutes more per person during the World Cup than their Springbok counterparts. This is partly because Erasmus rotated his squad widely during the tournament, while Rennie did not have such an opportunity.

Now the consequences are becoming clear. Over seven matches in the RGR, several players from the All Blacks' first team were forced to return home: from early casualties Billy Proctor and Kalaba Clark to Savea, Quinn Tupai, and Luca Jakobsen. Rennie was forced to make significant changes for the fourth match, including eight newcomers in the matchday squad. This is a large number of changes for a team aiming to win a match of this magnitude.

Springboks Have Gained Speed

This series has been very intense, but when the third match reached critical moments, it was South Africa that managed to find extra pace. Jesse Kriel's try changed the course of the game, and the Springboks sealed the victory. They won two consecutive matches and, crucially, demonstrated how to finish a competition of this level.

The All Blacks must win in Baltimore to level the series score. This might seem like an advantage for New Zealand, but psychologically, it could work in reverse. The Springboks cannot afford to lose the series, so they can play with the confidence of a team that has already proven its point, and with the freedom that comes from not needing to prove anything.

If South Africa can replicate something like their rout of the All Blacks with a score of 43-10 in Wellington last year, Baltimore could become another memorable chapter in the Great Rivalry.

The Springboks team plans to rely on their experience playing on neutral arenas in the upcoming test match against the All Blacks in Baltimore, USA. This match adds a new chapter to the history of encounters between the two greatest rivals on neutral territory.

Preliminary indications in Baltimore suggest that Springboks fans are likely to outnumber their New Zealand opponents on Saturday, as the Boks aim to win the series. Nevertheless, the M&T Bank Stadium will be significantly different from the atmosphere the team experienced in Johannesburg and Cape Town.

For coach Rassie Erasmus and his players, this means a need for a change in mentality. The Springboks coach stated that his team has already begun preparing for the conditions of playing against the All Blacks on neutral ground, similar to how they did during the 2023 World Cup final in Paris.

The Springboks have gained status as an experienced team regarding unusual conditions for rugby play. During the British & Irish Lions tour amid the COVID-19 pandemic, they played with almost no spectators. Furthermore, in 2021, they met the All Blacks in Townsville, Australia, as part of the centennial meeting of the two main rivals, and later played them again in Gold Coast as part of that year's Rugby World Cup.

Rassie Erasmus announced the Springbok XV squad for the confrontation with the All Blacks at M&T Bank Stadium this Saturday, September 12th. The starting lineup includes Morné van den Berg at position 9 alongside Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, and Siya Kolisi will lead the team.

Previously, the Springboks played in Twickenham, where they held a friendly match against the All Blacks and secured a convincing 35-7 victory, aided by the presence of many South African expats. Baltimore may offer another variation on this theme.

However, Erasmus insists that once the whistle blows, the surroundings become less significant. He noted: 'A neutral ground is still 70 meters out of 100 meters.' He added that while a good crowd is expected, they will miss strong home support in the first three matches, and the All Blacks will also feel the absence of their home support.

The coach emphasized that they have played against the All Blacks multiple times on neutral fields—in World Cups, in Twickenham, in group stage matches, semi-finals, and finals of the World Cups. In his opinion, 'it will be a hellishly tense match.'

Erasmus believes that the Boks can utilize their past experience, especially those unusual and sometimes worrying matches that took place during the pandemic. He recalled their participation in the British & Irish Lions tour in South Africa without spectators when trailing 1-0. He also mentioned matches during the COVID Rugby World Cup in Australia when there were hardly any South Africans because they could not leave the country. The team tries to remind themselves of these moments often.

He concluded that despite the lack of people, and the New Zealanders being in a similar situation, they had this experience many times against New Zealand, and sometimes ended up on the losing side. However, according to him, their motivation never depends on anything else. 'We saw last week how South Africa supports us. After the first defeat, some people spoke out against us, but most maintained a positive attitude and supported. We remember these people, and we will play for them.'

Rassie Erasmus emphasized the importance for the Springboks of playing home matches in 2026, especially the third game against the All Blacks, which will allow them to avoid losing the series.

Erasmus explained that the series is extremely important for the team, which they desperately want to win. After losing the first game and winning the second, the team decided to keep the squad, considering it the best decision for one of the key matches of the series.

He noted: 'We cannot win (the series) this Saturday, but we can guarantee that we won't lose it, as the last match will be either a draw or (a complete victory in the series). Therefore, we just feel that this is the best team to achieve our goal this weekend.'

Next week, the 'Greatest Rivalry' tour will conclude in Baltimore, making the match at the FNB stadium near Soweto the last for the Boks in the country in 2026. Erasmus added: 'This is our last match on South African soil in 2026. We would like to give our fans a victory.'

If the team does not resolve its defensive issues, the All Blacks may take advantage of it. In the first two matches, the All Blacks repeatedly caught the Boks off guard in wide areas where an unprotected player was always present. The Kiwis scored nine points against four South Africans.

Erasmus commented on the Kiwis' game, noting: 'They were brilliant in the wide areas. That is what they do very well under Dave Rennie. Under his attacking coach, they are hard to stop.'

He also spoke about Mike Blair, the former Scottish midfielder recruited by Rennie: 'Their two halves were the result of individual defensive errors. They beat us and outsmarted us in the other two, and we must be ready for that. So this is an area where we must improve.'

Furthermore, Erasmus stated that the South Africans had to work harder for their points than their opponents because the Kiwis have players who individually surpass the Boks players physically: 'Undoubtedly, that is something we must fix.'

Erasmus formed a starting lineup that differs only slightly from the squad that won in Cape Town. Damian Willemse was replaced by Cheslin Kolbe at fullback, and Kurt-Lee Arendse plays on the flank instead of Kolbe. Recently, before last week's match, Erasmus fielded a reserve front line consisting of Gerhard Steenkamp, Dion Fourie, and Thomas du Toit in the starting lineup, while Ox Nche, Malcolm Marx, and Vilko Lou played on the bench.

Erasmus explained how this was possible: 'We did it, it worked. I see that there was some issue with this. But an hour before the match, when you submit your player list, if they are in your 23-man squad, you can change the entire bench and start other guys if you want.'

He confirmed the legality of this action: 'It complies with the rules of the game. Frankly, we thought it would be a very wet match, and there is no doubt that heavier players scrum better on heavy fields, and lighter ones on firm fields. This weekend we plan to stick to this starting lineup.'