Experts from Boston Consulting Group (BCG) concluded that Kazakhstan needs to address two investment challenges simultaneously: attracting more capital and improving the efficiency of its distribution across the economy.
These findings are presented in BCG's study titled 'Investment Trajectories for Economic Development: A Capital-Oriented Approach to Growth in Emerging Economies.' According to the report, to achieve planned economic growth rates between 2025 and 2029, Kazakhstan will require an additional approximately $94 billion USD.
In 2025, the target economic growth rate was fully met, reaching about 6.5% by physical volume index; however, the investment attraction goal was only met by about one-third: approximately $6.1 billion was attracted out of a planned $18.8 billion.
The study focuses on economic policy based on managing key factors of production: capital, natural resources, human capital, physical and technological infrastructure. The authors believe that for Kazakhstan, the volume, cost, availability, and efficiency of capital distribution are becoming one of the main constraints on future growth.
Mikhail Volkov, Managing Director and Partner at BCG, noted that Kazakhstan has the potential to significantly increase the volume of capital available to finance long-term growth and investment projects. He added that over the next decade, international debt, institutional financing, new joint investment mechanisms, and domestic financial resources will play an increasingly important role, alongside foreign direct investment, which remains a vital source of capital.
According to Volkov, the next task is not only to expand the capital supply but also to create sufficient demand from economically viable and investment-ready companies and projects capable of attracting funding under market conditions.
Average gross capital formation in Kazakhstan was about 27.7% of GDP from 2019 to 2024 and reached 28.2% in 2025. BCG forecasts that to maintain annual long-term growth at 6–7%, this indicator must approach 30–33% of GDP. This will require not only more capital but also a wider range of funding sources and a sufficient number of high-quality projects capable of attracting and productively utilizing this capital.
The study indicates that Kazakhstan already possesses a significant set of institutions and resources involved in capital accumulation and distribution. In 2025, quasi-state enterprises accounted for about 14.7% of gross value added, with around 6,400 such organizations registered by the end of the year. This figure partially overlaps with over 26,000 legal entities owned by the state.
The financial system also plays a significant role. BCG estimates that approximately 47% of the banking sector's assets collectively consist of government bonds, securities, loans to quasi-state structures, and mandatory reserves.
Another major source of capital is long-term national savings. As of April 1, 2026, Kazakhstan's pension savings exceeded 26.8 trillion tenge, an increase of 17.9% year-on-year. In 2025, investments in fixed assets in Kazakhstan amounted to about 23 trillion tenge. The main source was corporate own funds, accounting for about 61.5%, while the state budget provided approximately 21.9%, and bank loans accounted for about 4.5%.
The study's authors suggest that this structure leaves room for developing additional channels of long-term financing, including bank lending, debt and equity markets, institutional investors, as well as broader access to international debt and institutional capital, and green finance and joint investment funds involving international financial institutions.
Within the capital-oriented approach, BCG experts identified three complementary ways to expand the capital base: reducing capital outflow and stimulating reinvestment, attracting new external capital, including foreign direct investment, and mobilizing domestic financial resources.
The authors note that there is no universal model for such transformation. Malaysia used foreign capital as one tool for developing export-oriented production, gradually supplementing it with local production capabilities and infrastructure. South Korea placed greater emphasis on mobilizing domestic capital, its national financial system, and active state coordination of investment during the industrialization phase.
For Kazakhstan, BCG believes that the experience of the UAE may also be relevant. This country utilized state capital and infrastructure investment to create new growth platforms. Singapore, at different stages of development, gradually shifted from attracting capital to developing human capital, financial, and high-tech industries.
Konstantin Polunin, Director and Partner at BCG and one of the study's authors, stated that access to capital and the presence of projects are only part of the problem, as investments yield maximum returns only when combined with human capital, technology, and entrepreneurship. Polunin emphasized that balancing the key factors of production—capital, people, infrastructure, technology, and resources—could become an independent focus of economic policy. Managing these factors will allow Kazakhstan not only to maintain growth rates but also to improve the quality of that growth.
