The Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau (SMG) of Macau issued an alert indicating that the El Niño phenomenon could result in more powerful typhoons in the region. El Niño is characterized by warming of the surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, typically occurring every two to seven years and lasting about nine to twelve months.
The SMG reported that during El Niño events, although the number of tropical storms reaching the South China Sea is generally lower than usual, their intensity tends to be greater. This happens because the warm waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean concentrate in the central and eastern regions of the ocean, causing the origin points of tropical storms to shift eastward.
The agency highlighted that since tropical storms have more time to develop over the ocean, continuously absorbing water vapor and oceanic thermal energy, they end up being stronger. Furthermore, the SMG predicted that El Niño will bring more hot and humid air to Southern China, which should raise the level of precipitation in Macau during winter above normal.
The SMG reminded that, according to projections from the World Meteorological Organization and the China National Climate Center, this El Niño could be the strongest recorded in observations. Forecasts suggest its intensity could reach the 'super strong' level (exceeding +2.5 °C) and persist until February 2027.
In May, the interim deputy director of the Hong Kong meteorological agency had already warned about the increased risk of supertyphoons hitting Southern China that year. Choy Chun-wing, head of the Hong Kong Observatory, estimated that the region would be affected by four to seven tropical storms in 2026, a lower number than the 14 recorded the previous year. However, Choy warned that El Niño increases the chance of these storms becoming supertyphoons.
Typhoons are common events in Southeast Asia, where warm Pacific waters favor cyclone formation, and Southern China receives dozens of these storms annually. At the end of March, the SMG of Macau did not rule out the possibility of the area being impacted by supertyphoons comparable to Ragasa, the most powerful storm recorded globally in 2025.
A 2024 study pointed out that typhoons in the region are forming closer to the coast, intensifying more rapidly, and remaining over land for longer, an effect attributed to climate change. Scientists state that climate change is causing more frequent and intense extreme weather phenomena worldwide.