The Board of Directors of the Central Bank of Russia decided to keep the key rate at 14.00% per annum. The bank noted that the economy showed moderate growth in the third quarter of 2026, but price pressure has intensified in recent months.
The CBR reported that, according to its estimates, core inflation accelerated to a level of 5% to 6% year-on-year. This increase is mainly due to a temporary reduction in production capacity in several sectors.
The bank stated that inflation reduction will resume as these effects disappear and aggregate demand remains under control. Future decisions on maintaining or changing rates will be based on inflation dynamics, inflation expectations, and an assessment of risks associated with both domestic and external conditions.
In the baseline scenario, considering the applied monetary policy, annual inflation is expected to fluctuate within 6%–7% in 2026, then return to 4% in 2027, and be maintained at the target level thereafter.
According to CBR data, prices rose by 11.6% in July compared to the previous year, which contrasts with the average of 5.3% for the second half of 2026. The core inflation indicator rose to 7% compared to the average of 4.6% in the previous quarter.
The regulator emphasized that the price dynamics in recent months were significantly influenced by volatile components, such as transport fuel and fruits and vegetables. The rise in fuel prices, caused by Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil refineries and the shortage of gasoline and diesel fuel, affected inflation dynamics.
The CBR acknowledged that inflation expectations among households, companies, and financial markets have developed in different directions but remain high, which may hinder a sustained slowdown in inflation despite the moderate pace of economic growth. It was also noted that consumer demand is slowing down, although it remains high, and investment activity continues to recover relative to the beginning of the year.
The Central Bank announced that the next monetary policy meeting will take place on October 23.