An analysis conducted by the Technical Secretariat for Food Security and Nutrition (SETSAN), using the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), indicates a significant worsening of the food insecurity situation in Mozambique. The projection points to a 55% increase compared to the current 1.19 million individuals in acute food insecurity.
For the period forecast between October 2026 and March 2027, the traditional time of food scarcity in the country, it is expected that approximately 254,000 people will be in a state of Food Emergency (Phase 4), a considerable increase from the current 81,000. Furthermore, the number of people in Crisis (Phase 3) is expected to reach 1.58 million, totaling about 1.84 million people who will require urgent assistance.
The observed deterioration can be attributed to the depletion of food stocks, the impact of armed conflicts in the northern region of the country, and the expected effects of the El Niño Phenomenon in the southern and central areas of Mozambique. Analysts predict a worsening of acute food insecurity in the districts examined.
The assessment included 46 districts considered most vulnerable to shocks recorded between October 2025 and June 2026, covering events such as floods, Cyclone Gezani, and the effects of armed conflict in Cabo Delgado. There is a special alert for districts affected by the conflict in Cabo Delgado and parts of Nampula, as well as for the arid and semi-arid zones of the center and south, which are sensitive to the El Niño climate phenomenon.
There is an 89% probability of El Niño occurring by January 2027, a scenario that implies below-average precipitation in the southern and central regions, rising temperatures, and greater risks to agricultural production. Additionally, increases in transport costs, inflation, and fuel prices also affect families' access to food.
In terms of prices, in May, maize in the south of the country was priced between 25% and 60% higher than the average of the last five years, while rice was between 20% and 40% above the historical average. Annual inflation showed growth, rising from 4.4% in April to 7.5% in June 2026, reaching its highest level since May 2023.
In nutritional terms, the report estimates that over the next twelve months, about 103,617 children aged between 6 and 59 months and 11,131 pregnant or breastfeeding women will require treatment due to acute malnutrition. Finally, more than 27,000 people were forced to displace between April and June 2026 due to attacks by armed groups in Cabo Delgado, specifically in the districts of Ancuabe, Montepuez, and Chiúre, which continues to complicate access to markets, livelihoods, and humanitarian aid.