According to ISRO forecasts, three tropical cyclones may form in the North Indian Ocean between October and December 2026. The estimated total power of these storms, measured by the Power Dissipation Index (PDI), is expected to be around 13.06 x 10⁶ knots³. This figure is significantly higher than that of the previous 44 storms, indicating potentially high cyclone activity during the post-monsoon season.
This forecast is based on the analysis of long-term data related to sea and atmospheric conditions. It allows for an advance assessment of the level of cyclone activity that may be observed in the coming months. This information is useful for preparing local residents, government bodies, and rescue teams, although it does not provide precise data on the date or location of any specific cyclone's occurrence.
According to ISRO estimates, three cyclones may occur in the North Indian Ocean during the 2026 post-monsoon season. PDI is used to assess the strength of a cyclone, taking into account wind speed and the duration of its powerful phase; the higher the PDI, the stronger the storm's activity can be.
To compile this forecast, climatic and marine data from approximately 40 years were studied, including information on various atmospheric and oceanic conditions. The analysis of this data helped understand under what circumstances strong cyclones might arise and what their intensity would be. Furthermore, the assessment of cyclone activity for the post-monsoon season from October to December was made based on data collected from January to August, considering factors affecting cyclone formation and strength.
Coastal areas of many countries, including India, are susceptible to cyclones in the North Indian Ocean region. Therefore, an early understanding of high cyclonic activity levels in a specific season simplifies the preparation process. Governments and local administrations can prepare aid and rescue services in advance. It is also possible to issue warnings to fishermen against going out to sea and take measures to evacuate populations from vulnerable coastal areas.
However, it should be emphasized that this forecast only provides a general idea of cyclone activity throughout the season, and does not specify the exact date, trajectory, or landfall location of any particular storm. The projected PDI for 2026 significantly exceeds the average over the last 44 years, which requires close attention to cyclone activity in the North Indian Ocean from October to December.