Africa may face a season of intense heat, drought, flooding, and disrupted rainfall patterns due to the strengthening of an unusually powerful El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean.
The latest forecast from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicates that El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% probability that it will become a very strong event during the autumn-winter period of 2026/27 in the Northern Hemisphere. There is a 69% chance that the event will exceed the strength of any recorded El Niño since 1950 between October and December.
Dr. Henno Havenga, senior lecturer in climatology at the School of Geospatial Sciences at Northwestern University (NWU), noted that the term 'super El Niño' is widely used but is not an official scientific classification. He explained that this description refers exclusively to an extremely strong El Niño event. El Niño occurs when the central and eastern parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean become abnormally warm, and atmospheric circulation above it changes. These changes can affect weather conditions far beyond the Pacific Ocean through so-called teleconnections.
Havenga emphasized that the strength of the developing event does not guarantee catastrophe in all countries or regions; El Niño only changes the odds, but does not dictate the weather from one area to another. Nevertheless, it can increase the probability or exacerbate certain conditions typically associated with El Niño.
For most of Southern Africa, such conditions include reduced rainfall, drought, and abnormally high temperatures. The heat worsens the damage as it increases evaporation and the demand for water for crops, livestock, and people precisely when reserves may be depleting.
He added that even within one country, rainfall might arrive too late, fall in the wrong places, or come down in short, destructive squalls instead of the timely and evenly distributed rain needed for agricultural crops. 'The timing, distribution, and intensity of precipitation can either amplify or compensate for the typical El Niño signal locally.'
According to Havenga, agriculture is one of the most vulnerable sectors, but the consequences will extend far beyond the farm. Poor harvests can lead to reduced food availability, weakened rural incomes, and rising prices.
He warned that commercial producers may have access to insurance, financing, irrigation, or alternative markets, whereas smallholder or subsistence farmers may lose both family food and income-generating produce.
Water security issues are equally pressing. Hot and dry weather increases demand while simultaneously reducing the amount of water in rivers, reservoirs, and wells. Havenga noted that local authorities cannot afford to lose treated water due to leaks and poorly maintained infrastructure during such a period. He advised that 'reducing leaks and unnecessary losses from existing water infrastructure is one of the most practical interventions available to us. At the same time, all users should generally conserve water.'
Intense El Niño can put a strain on healthcare systems, energy systems, and ecosystems. Extreme heat poses a particular danger to outdoor workers, the elderly, children, and people with chronic illnesses. Drought can affect drinking water quality, sanitation, and nutrition, while floods can contaminate water sources and increase the risk of diseases.
Havenga stated that one cannot assume that every ecosystem will simply return to its previous state after a severe drought. However, reducing anthropogenic pressure, including excessive water abstraction, land degradation, and unnecessary habitat disruption, can improve the ability of ecosystems to withstand and recover from this phenomenon.
He insisted that governments must repair water infrastructure, prepare food security programs, and ensure the ability to quickly launch disaster response systems. Havenga called for developing financial aid, agricultural support, and drought relief mechanisms before farmers and communities find themselves in difficulty.
He stressed that drought is a slow-developing risk. Its consequences may initially be unnoticed, but it develops gradually, and this slow progression can catch people off guard. 'The advantage is that early warning systems allowed us to discuss this event starting in May. We must use this warning to reduce our vulnerability and prepare for a difficult season, rather than waiting until the drought has already set in.'