Eskom requires rooftop solar panel registration by September, offering payment deferrals

Despite ongoing discussions regarding the pace of India's GDP growth and data calculation methodologies, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued positive comments concerning new economic indicators and their formation methods. According to IMF data, India continues to be a key driver of global economic growth.

The global institution noted that updated series of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) may contribute to further improvement in forecasts for India's GDP growth.

The IMF also reported that real GDP growth in the first quarter of the 2026-27 fiscal year was 7.8%, exceeding expectations. During a press briefing held in Washington, Julie Kozak, IMF's Director of Communications, discussed the latest data on India's GDP. She emphasized that the new IIP indices and PPI series included in the latest GDP report will help refine forecasts for India. This means that in the future, a more current representation of data will be available for measuring economic activity and assessing GDP.

Julie Kozak also highly praised the efforts made by Indian authorities to modernize the macroeconomic data system. She recommended that Indian officials continue to strengthen the statistical base and data quality in the same spirit. These remarks from the IMF came amid questions raised by the Congress party and some of its leaders regarding the quality of India's economic indicators and GDP calculations. The government, for its part, asserts that the new datasets and modified data system are aimed at increasing the reliability of forecasts related to economic activity.

The IMF acknowledged that recent indicators of India's economic growth turned out to be better than expected. According to Kozak, India's real GDP increased by 7.8% in the first quarter, which was higher than the projections of IMF staff and estimates from other rating agencies. This growth was supported by the services and export sectors. This figure demonstrates the resilience of India's domestic economy despite fluctuations in global energy prices.

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) published GDP data for the April-June 2026-27 fiscal quarter on August 31. According to this data, India's real GDP growth in the first quarter reached 7.8%, compared to 6.9% the previous year. Economic activity was supported by strong capital expenditure, the construction sector, and the services sector. At stable prices, using the 2022-23 base year, real GDP amounted to 81.36 lakh crore rupees. In the first quarter of the 2025-26 fiscal year, this figure was 75.46 lakh crore rupees. At current prices, nominal GDP grew by 10.3%, reaching 88.27 lakh crore rupees, compared to approximately 80 lakh crore rupees the previous year.

Gross Value Added (GVA) also showed confident growth. In the first quarter, real GVA increased by 8.2%, reaching 73.82 lakh crore rupees, while nominal GVA grew by 11.5%, amounting to 80.53 lakh crore rupees. This indicates the stability of economic activity in key sectors such as services, construction, and others.

The digital payment platform Super.money, owned by Flipkart, is beginning to implement artificial intelligence agents capable of independently purchasing goods and acquiring gold. The company is betting that this technology will help it stand out among larger competitors.

CEO Prakash Sikaria told Bloomberg that the fintech company has started launching consumer agents and plans to cover its entire client base within the next two months. Super.money, which has about 20 million active monthly users, is starting agent purchases on the Flipkart platform and allows customers to buy gold when prices drop to a level they have set.

In the future, Super.money intends to expand the use of agents for online purchases outside of Flipkart. These AI assistants are expected to be able to pay bills and manage investments, giving users the ability to delegate transactions. This step is part of a strategy aimed at accelerating product innovation through agents to increase revenue.

Sikaria noted that since the country is very price-sensitive, the company believes that value or price-oriented agents will be successful. He specified that these agents are essentially payment agents created in partnership with sellers.

Initially, access to these agents will be free for customers, but as their usage grows, the company plans to monetize them through subscription services. Super.money plans to allocate about 20% of its engineering expenses this year to the development and scaling of consumer agents. Sikaria predicts that in three to four years, after fine-tuning the model, 30%–40% of the organization's revenue may come from agent use cases.

The Super.money app, launched in 2024, provides various financial services, including credit cards, loans, and deposits. It competes in India's crowded fintech market with players like Google Pay from Alphabet Inc. and Paytm, which jointly offer transactions through the local Unified Payments Interface (UPI).

Futures indices for Sensex and Nifty 50 opened significantly lower on Friday due to a sharp rise in oil prices triggered by escalating tensions in the Middle East, as well as rising bond yields, which intensified concerns about a potential Fed rate hike next week.

The BSE Sensex index began trading lower at 74,309 and continued its decline, reaching a low of 74,160 at the start of trading, representing a drop of 742 points or 1 percent. Similarly, the Nifty 50 index opened in the red at 23,270 and hit a bottom of 23,231, showing a fall of 246 points or 1.05 percent.

Analysts note the strengthening of negative factors for the market related to the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, stated that high crude oil prices are dampening risk appetite. Dwarsh Vakil, Head of Primary Research at HDFC Securities, noted that financial markets are adapting to a higher probability of monetary policy tightening, as federal fund futures indicate a greater than 70 percent chance of a rate hike next week.

By 9:27 AM, the 30-stock Sensex was trading 630 points or 0.84 percent lower, reaching 74,270, while the NSE Nifty index fell by 222 points or 0.94 percent, settling at 23,256.

Sectoral Dynamics and Market Indicators

All sectoral indices experienced declines. The Nifty Realty index fell by more than 3.5 percent, and Nifty Metal corrected by 2.8 percent. The Nifty Bank index also decreased by more than 1 percent. In the broader market, indices reflected the trend of benchmarks, trading in a downward trajectory. Both Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 lost 1.3 percent. The fear index India VIX jumped by more than 6 percent, reaching 12.5. A weak advance-decline ratio indicated selling pressure: 2,377 stocks declined versus 504 that rose, and nearly 90 remained unchanged.

Among Sensex stocks, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, HCL Tech, Bajaj Finance, and ITC showed growth, increasing by up to 1.5 percent. On the other hand, the biggest losers were M&M, Bajaj Finance, Tata Steel, IndiGo, and UltraTech Cement, each falling by more than 2 percent.

Reasons for the Market Decline

Oil Prices

Oil prices have risen and are on track to close the week above $100 per barrel for the first time since mid-May. Brent crude futures jumped by 0.42 percent to $108.1 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose by 0.33 percent to $102.8. Vijayakumar emphasized that if high oil prices persist or, worse, increase further, the impact on India's GDP growth and, consequently, corporate earnings will be significant.

Bond Yields

Vijayakumar added that 'the rise in US bond yields is an equally negative factor.' The ten-year yield is now 4.96 percent—the highest level since late 2023. He noted that the approach of this figure to the 5 percent mark is viewed by many as a possible turning point for global equities. 'A correction in the global stock market is likely, but predicting its timing is difficult.'

Primary Market

Furthermore, the rapidly developing IPO market is attracting investor attention. Significant oversubscription and attractive listing gains have drawn millions of investors to the IPO market. This has led to a withdrawal of large funds from the secondary market. Meanwhile, NSE announced the price band and subscription date for the long-awaited IPO.

Asian Stocks Fall

Asian stocks sharply declined as the rise in oil prices and bond yields triggered a wider outflow of capital from risk assets. At the time of the last check, Japan's Nikkei 225 index fell by 2.8 percent, followed by South Korea's Kospi, which dropped by 2.3 percent. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 lost 1.2 percent.

US Markets

US markets closed lower overnight due to stronger producer inflation data, intensifying fears of another rate hike. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.6 percent, the S&P 500 dipped by 0.5 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite finished down 0.65 percent.

ECB Raises Interest Rates

European stocks fell to two-month lows after the European Central Bank raised interest rates for the second time this year to combat rising inflation. The ECB's key deposit rate is now 2.5 percent, which is at the upper end of the 'neutral' range, which politicians believe neither restricts nor stimulates economic growth. Dwarsh noted that the ECB raised the rate in line with expectations, as the conflict continues to fuel inflationary pressures. The Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates to 1.25 percent after the highly anticipated meeting next Friday.