September 9, 13:06Aaj Tak

Goldman Sachs warns of potential stock market crash due to oil market crisis

A crisis related to crude oil is observed globally, stemming from the conflict between the US and Iran, which leads to constant disruptions in oil supply chains and a sharp rise in energy prices. Prices for Brent Crude and WTI Crude show significant growth. On September 9th, Brent Crude reached $100, while WTI Crude traded at $94 per barrel, showing an increase of more than 2 percent.

In this situation, the major American banking institution Goldman Sachs made a serious statement regarding crude oil. According to Goldman Sachs' forecasts, a substantial decline may occur in the stock markets if the situation develops according to their assessments.

Dan Stroeven, co-head of the commodities research department at Goldman Sachs, stated that if attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz do not cease, crude oil prices could rise to $120 per barrel. He also noted that in recent days, there has been an increase in shipping obstacles as the issue surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remains tense between the US and Iran.

This strait is a transit route for 20 percent of global oil, and currently, a significantly smaller volume passes through it. This leads to inflation growth and increased risks.

Depending on the escalation of the confrontation between the US and Iran, crude oil prices could exceed the $100 mark. For India, this could be a serious blow as the import bill increases. This, in turn, will lead to higher logistics and raw material prices, which will affect the retail market.

If inflation rises in the country, it will have a deep impact on the stock market. Company profits will decrease, leading to a fall in the value of their shares. A drop in stock prices could trigger an overall market decline and increase the probability of a major downturn.

It should be noted that the conflict between the US and Iran began on March 28th. Since then, crude oil prices have been rising. On April 30th, crude oil prices reached $125 per barrel, and they are rising again now.

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www.aajtak.inSeptember 9, 07:03

Stock Market Plunge: Oil Price Hike Triggers Collapse in Sensex and Nifty, IT Sector Stocks Suffer

The Indian stock market is experiencing a serious downturn on the third working day of the week. The BSE Sensex index plummeted by more than 600 points immediately after the market opened. At the same time, the National Stock Exchange's Nifty index also fell sharply, dropping below the 23,500 level, which dealt a significant blow to investors.

A notable decline was observed in the shares of information technology (IT) companies. A major drop was recorded for both TCS and Infosys. However, among the falling assets, stocks such as Paytm also showed growth.

Sensex and Nifty Open with Decline

The Sensex index from BSE began the trading session with a sharp decrease. This index of 30 stocks opened at 75,216, lower than the previous close of 75,577, and the rate of decline then accelerated significantly. By the time of writing, it had dropped by more than 609 points, reaching the mark of 74,968.

Parallel to the fall of the Sensex, the NSE Nifty index also showed a decline. NSE Nifty started at 23,522, which was below the previous close of 23,635, and then continued its rapid descent, trading at 23,477.

Sharpest Decline in IT Company Stocks

During the initial trading on Wednesday, IT company stocks faced the steepest decline. In the Nifty IT index, a drop of 3.06% was recorded. Among the companies showing the largest decrease were HCL Technologies (3.67%), Tech Mahindra (3.43%), TCS (2.88%), and Infosys (3.50%).

Companies that suffered the greatest losses in the IT sector also included Coforge, whose shares fell by 5.70%. Additionally, declines were recorded for Persistent Systems (2.42%), LTI Mindtree (2.52%), Amfaxis (2.32%), and Wipro (2.07%).

Main Reasons for the Fall, Including Crude Oil Prices

The reasons for the stock market collapse are linked to several factors. The sharp rise in global crude oil prices occurred due to escalating tensions in the Middle East and attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The price of Brent Crude approached $100, which once again increased the threat of inflation globally and worsened sentiment in the stock market.

Furthermore, geopolitical tension intensified due to the trade war between the US and Canada. Canada imposed tariffs of up to 50% on American goods, while Trump announced additional tariffs on a wide range of Canadian goods by the end of September. Attacks on ships in the Gulf also raised global tension to a high level.

Despite the overall slump, some stocks managed to generate profits for investors. These included Paytm Share, which rose by 4%, Medanta Share (+3.10%), Reliance Power Share (+2.50%), and NTPC Share (+1.10%).

business-standard.comAugust 27, 11:16

Analysts predict sustained high oil prices due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz

According to analytical notes from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and analysts at Rabobank International, crude oil prices are likely to remain elevated in the near term. This is because disruptions in flows through the Strait of Hormuz have caused a sharp decline in global reserves.

The outlook for the period after the current quarter depends on the pace of supply recovery. The EIA expects the average price for Brent crude to be around $85 per barrel in the third quarter of 2026, which is $11 per barrel higher than the previous estimate. The agency forecasts that global oil reserves have decreased by an average of 4.2 million barrels per day between the April-June 2026 quarters and anticipates a further decrease of 3.8 million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2026.

The EIA believes that prices will begin to fall once traffic through the Strait of Hormuz gradually recovers and oil production, which was halted, resumes. It is projected that the average Brent price in the fourth quarter of 2026 will reach $78 per barrel, and in 2027, $69 per barrel, as global reserves begin to recover.

Since the start of the Middle East conflict in 2026, Brent oil prices rose from approximately $70 per barrel to a peak of over $120 per barrel before falling to pre-war levels amid easing tensions between the US and Iran. However, the impasse regarding the Strait of Hormuz has once again triggered a rise to $86 per barrel.

More Optimistic View

Nevertheless, Rabobank has a more optimistic forecast for prices in the coming quarters. They raised their Brent forecast to $90 per barrel for both the third and fourth quarters of 2026, increasing their previous estimates of around $88 per barrel and $86 per barrel. The forecast for 2027 was also increased to $86 per barrel, and the estimate for 2028 was raised to $79 per barrel.

Rabobank analysts, Joe DeLaura and Florence Schmidt, noted that August marked a new balance characterized by economic sanctions and low-level conflict between the US and Iran, but they do not see significant progress in resolving broader geopolitical contradictions. They also consider it unlikely that a short-term agreement to resume commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will be reached currently, given the limited common ground between the US and Iran.

Rabobank expects Brent prices to remain volatile in the coming months, with a lower support zone of $70–$75 per barrel and an upper limit of $95–$100 per barrel. The bank warns, however, that a new disruption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz or the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could push prices above $100 per barrel. Thus, the immediate direction of prices will likely depend on events surrounding key shipping routes and the speed of recovery of disrupted oil production and flows.