According to Cássio Pagliarini, a consultant at Bright Consulting, the current scenario represents an 'exceptional moment' for those wishing to buy used or semi-new vehicles in Brazil, as the prices of these automobiles should not depreciate more than what is currently observed.
This scenario is the result of a combination of factors, including a 'migration effect' and a 'price war,' in addition to financing becoming slightly more accessible, although interest rates remain a significant obstacle to purchasing in the country.
What is happening?
The 'migration effect' occurs because many consumers who previously looked for semi-new vehicles (cars with one or two years of use) have started opting for new Chinese vehicles. Pagliarini explains that these Chinese models are more affordable, incorporate high technology, and are electrified, driving a growth of about 20% in the new car segment between 2025 and 2026.
Consequently, the decrease in demand for semi-new vehicles forced sellers to reduce prices. OLX reports corroborate this trend: while the inflation of new cars rose by 1.39% in the last 12 months up to June 2026, the inflation of used cars registered a drop of 1.89%, indicating that, on average, used cars became cheaper.
The dynamics of the price war
The 'price war' was catalyzed by the entry of new brands, especially Chinese ones, which brought unprecedented promotions and discounts. This pressure forced even traditional manufacturers to lower their prices. Thus, the real cost of new cars fell by 3.5%. Since the zero-mileage vehicle became cheaper or offered more technology for the same price, this generated pressure for used car prices to also fall.
This reduction is visible in the average advertised values on OLX. Examples include the 2013 Volkswagen Gol (1.0 version), which depreciated by 5.10% in one year; the 2013 Ford Ecosport automatic, with an 8.82% drop; and the 2007 Hyundai Tucson automatic, which fell by 7.20%. In the niche of luxury electrified vehicles, such as plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and electric cars in the R$ 250k to R$ 350k range, there were sharp depreciations, exceeding 20%, due to the rapid technological evolution of competing brands.
Additionally, credit became easier: in May, the Selic rate fell to 14.25%, and the average interest rate for personal vehicle financing reached 26.3% per year, which stimulated the volume of loans granted.
However, Pagliarini emphasizes that the interest rate remains a major impediment to car acquisition in Brazil, as he assesses that 'the interest rate is high and makes financing quite expensive to buy the vehicle.'
Recommendation for the consumer
When asked what to recommend to a middle-class reader undecided between buying now or waiting, Pagliarini advises that if the person is looking for a used car, 'it is the best time,' reinforcing that there will be no further depreciation in prices. He suggests immediate purchase of a semi-new or used car.
Regarding new vehicles, he warns that there are future launches, such as the GM Sonic, the Hyundai i20, and new Volkswagen models, whose electrified and mild hybrid versions will still be presented. For those seeking newly launched vehicles, a good opportunity lies in electrified models from certain Chinese brands. As for vehicles from traditional companies, he advises waiting for the mild hybrid versions arriving on the market, citing examples such as the increase in sales of the Jeep Renegade after the launch of the electrified version and the case of the Toro.
