Strengthening El Niño threatens Africa with harsh weather, requiring resilience-building measures

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned that the El Niño phenomenon is already established and is expected to gain strength in the coming months, potentially reaching a very high intensity. This event has the potential to modify temperature and precipitation patterns, increasing the incidence of heatwaves, droughts, and floods.

Projections indicate a near 100% probability that this event will persist until February 2027. This forecast is based on the exceptional warming observed in the tropical Pacific, which already shows clear signs of a new intensification.

The water masses in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, an area directly related to El Niño, are showing temperatures significantly higher than normal and continue to warm. The Niño 3.4 index recorded an average anomaly of 1.5°C between May and July 2026, reaching 2.0°C in July. Subsequently, between late July and mid-August, weekly records rose to a range between 2.2°C and 2.6°C above average.

This increase in heat is not limited to the surface; in some locations, the underlying water exceeded the normal average by more than 8°C during July and early August. The convergence of these indicators justifies the WMO's high confidence in its forecast.

El Niño is visibly expanding, and the scientific community states that the planet is entering unknown and warming waters. António Guterres, UN Secretary-General, commented on the scenario.

Climate Forecasts and Impacts

It is expected that El Niño will reach its peak this year, although its climatic effects may extend until 2027. A strong El Niño increases the chance of noticeable changes in atmospheric circulation, temperature, and rainfall. For the period of September to November 2026, WMO models predict a higher probability of above-average temperatures in practically all land areas.

Among the possible developments of this period, there are important caveats: the intensity of El Niño alone does not define the magnitude of impacts in all countries, as the region, time of year, and other climatic factors also influence the overall picture.

Despite this, the outlook raises concern. Celeste Saulo, WMO Secretary-General, stated: 'We are already seeing disturbances and devastation caused by droughts and floods, and we expect these impacts to increase as El Niño intensifies.'

The conditions in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans have the potential to modify the usual reaction to El Niño. For September to November, the forecast points to the emergence of a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole, with a seasonal average of 0.9°C.

Influence of the Equatorial Atlantic

Additionally, the equatorial Atlantic is expected to remain warm, showing above-average temperatures in both northern and southern tropical regions. Such elements can reinforce, diminish, or alter the expected effects of El Niño.

Even though it is a natural phenomenon, El Niño has the capacity to affect the climate far beyond the borders of the tropical Pacific. It is precisely this influence in distant areas that makes advance forecasts crucial for managing periods of intense heat, drought, or heavy rains.

The current expectation is that the phenomenon will continue to gain strength until the end of the year. In the coming months, new projections should detail with greater accuracy how this intensification will manifest in various parts of the globe.

Despite a record maize harvest in South Africa, which serves as an important buffer against immediate food shortages, the looming threat of intensified El Niño is raising concerns about agricultural production and food accessibility for low-income households in 2027.

The record maize harvest and improved water reserves should protect against immediate scarcities, but intensifying El Niño could reduce agricultural output and push food prices higher next year. El Niño is a climate anomaly characterized by unusually warm surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, which can disrupt global weather patterns and is often associated with hotter and drier conditions in Southern Africa.

The country previously faced this phenomenon during the 2023/24 summer season, when drought and extreme heat negatively affected maize production. An earlier warning about the potential consequences of prolonged drought was received during the strong El Niño in 2015/16, when poor harvests forced the country to increase grain imports.

The main concern among the population is not the disappearance of maize from store shelves, but that a poor harvest in 2026/27 could make staple foods less accessible to low-income segments of the population.

Risks of Dry Weather and Regional Production

The risk of drier climate will coincide with the summer growing season, which begins in mid-October. The Free State, North West, and Mpumalanga regions produce about 82% of South Africa's commercial maize harvest, much of which is grown under dryland farming conditions. Paul Makube, Senior Agricultural Economist at FNB Commercial, noted that the El Niño forecast 'creates huge risk for summer crops,' as this weather pattern is associated with unpredictable below-average rainfall and drought in South Africa.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported in August the intensification of El Niño, forecasting a probability of a very strong event exceeding 90% for the Northern Hemisphere autumn-winter period in 2026/27. However, a powerful El Niño does not guarantee severe drought in South Africa; the extent of crop losses will depend on the amount and timing of rainfall.

South Africa starts the season in a stronger position compared to the 2015/16 drought period. Two wet seasons have improved soil moisture, replenished groundwater, and raised reservoir levels, with rains continuing until May, exceeding the usual summer rainfall season. Makube emphasized that 'this is a significant buffer, as replenished soil moisture, aquifers, and reservoir levels will help the sector cope with a difficult season.'

Harvest Forecasts and Market Strategies

The latest Harvest Assessment Committee forecast sets a record volume for commercial grains and oilseeds in the 2025/26 season at approximately 21.56 million tonnes. Commercial maize production is projected to be 17.36 million tonnes, the largest ever recorded and nearly 4% more than last year. South Africa consumes about 12 million tonnes of maize annually. After harvesting and accounting for stocks, about three million tonnes should remain for export during the 2026/27 marketing year.

Regional demand may increase if El Niño leads to lower yields in other parts of South Africa. Makube suggested that South Africa is unlikely to need significant maize imports in 2026 or 2027. Imports might be required after 2027 if El Niño extends into a second season.

Vandile Sichlobo, Chief Economist at the South African Agribusiness Association, argued that open markets, not government intervention, are the best defense against future shortages. He stated that 'South Africa will maintain open trade. We will not interfere in grain or agricultural markets, even during a drought.' Sichlobo also opposed the creation of a state-controlled strategic grain reserve, arguing that such measures distort food markets, and if a shortage occurs, there are sufficient stocks available for import from the global market.

Makube advised the government and industry to support the functioning of trade and logistics, as well as ensure access to seeds, fertilizers, financing, storage, and markets. The government must prepare support for households that cannot cope with rising food prices. Small farmers also need access to finance, insurance, information, and agricultural resources.

Before planting, Makube recommended that farmers consider using drought-resistant and heat-tolerant seeds, minimum tillage, crop rotation, and soil cover methods. Efficient irrigation, rainwater harvesting, and precise use of fuel and fertilizers can limit losses. Farmers should engage financiers in seasonal planning, consider crop insurance, and leave marginal, drought-prone lands unplanted if yields do not justify the risk.

Livestock producers face a separate threat if dry weather damages pastures and increases feed costs. Sichlobo noted that 'for this sector, maintaining feed reserves during a drought remains key for the livestock industry.' Early planning of feed reserves can help livestock producers better manage deteriorating pasture conditions and feed shortages.

Soil condition will determine how much rainfall farms can retain. Torun Wolfram, Secretary of the FAO Global Soil Partnership, stated that healthy soil cannot prevent drought or eliminate uncertainty in rainfall amounts, but it can reduce agricultural vulnerability. Soil cover, organic matter, and erosion control measures allow water to penetrate the soil and remain available around plant roots longer.

The current record harvest is already helping consumers. According to Statistics South Africa data, food and non-alcoholic beverage price inflation slowed to 0.9% in July, the lowest figure in over 16 years. Grain prices fell by 2% year-on-year, and the price of maize meal dropped by 3.1% in July. These improvements could change if the next harvest drops sharply or if costs for fuel, fertilizers, and transportation rise. Sichlobo believes that food inflation could 'slightly increase' in 2027, depending on the severity of the drought. Makube concluded that 'a bad season does not necessarily turn into a food security crisis, but it can lead to a food inflation problem, as seen during previous El Niño events.' He added: 'Ultimately, food security depends not only on production but also on maintaining affordability, purchasing power, and access to food.'