India has taken the position of a crucial source of diesel fuel for Europe. In August, India supplied about 60 percent of the fuel volume passing through the Bab el-Mandeb to the region, as exports from Russia remain severely restricted and supplies from the US begin to weaken. These data were provided by the analytical company Vortexa.
The total transit of diesel fuel (gasoil) through the Bab el-Mandeb in August amounted to about 200,000 barrels per day, comparable to last year's figures. This volume was achieved after the flow through the key sea route almost stopped in March and April. According to Vortexa's report, India supplied approximately 60 percent of this volume, making Indian refineries an increasingly significant source of eastern diesel fuel supplies for Europe.
India is the fourth-largest oil refiner in the world, with a installed capacity of 258.1 million tons per year, which exceeds domestic fuel demand. In the 2025-26 fiscal year (from April 2025 to March 2026), India exported 61.5 million tons of petroleum products, becoming one of the largest global exporters of refined products. These types of fuels are now finding markets in Europe and Russia.
However, there are concerns about the ability to maintain these flows. Vortexa data showed that crude oil and condensate supplies to India fell for the second consecutive month, reaching approximately 3.8 million barrels per day in August compared to 4.8 million barrels per day the previous year.
Exports of Russian diesel fuel, which was previously a major source for Europe, remained largely absent. In the first 25 days of August, Russia's maritime export of diesel fuel and gasoil amounted to only about 150,000 barrels per day, which is 610,000 barrels per day less than the previous year and 81 percent below the five-year seasonal average, according to Vortexa.
Even a partial easing of the ban on Russian diesel fuel exports starting September 1st may not lead to a rapid recovery. Ukrainian drone attacks continue to disrupt Russian refining and export infrastructure. 32 attacks on oil refineries were recorded in July and August. An attack on the Perm refinery with a capacity of 260,000 barrels per day reduced its crude oil cracking operational capacity to approximately 28 percent, according to data provided by Vortexa.
The impact extends to export terminals. Last year, the Black Sea accounted for about 44 percent, or 380,000 barrels per day, of Russia's diesel fuel and gasoil exports, but disruptions at ports and refineries have reduced available volumes. According to Vortexa, no batches of diesel fuel have been exported from Tuapse since the May attack. The port processed about 90,000 barrels per day, which accounts for approximately 10 percent of Russia's total diesel fuel exports in 2025.
Russia is also increasingly resorting to imports to compensate for disruptions in domestic refining. Russia's maritime import of gasoline sharply increased to a record approximately 125,000 barrels per day in August, equivalent to about 470,000 tons per month. About 55 percent of this import arrived on sanctioned vessels, with suppliers including India, Turkey, and Morocco.
Indian shipments of gasoline (automotive fuel) to Russia in August were transported on sanctioned fleets and included ship-to-ship operations in the Mediterranean, demonstrating how sanctions, refinery downtime, and disruptions to traditional trade routes are changing the flows of refined products into and out of the region.
For Europe, India's role is most important in the diesel fuel segment. The country is filling the gap left by Russia, while the US, another major source of additional supply to Europe, is also showing signs of retreat.
In August, the US supplied about half of Europe's maritime diesel fuel imports from outside the region, about 520,000 barrels per day, compared to about a quarter of that volume the previous year. However, supplies to Europe peaked at nearly 540,000 barrels per day in the first half of August before dropping to about 350,000 barrels per day in the second half, representing a decrease of about 35 percent.
This leads to Europe becoming increasingly dependent on Indian refiners to maintain eastern supply routes, while the availability of raw materials in India is decreasing.
Girhos offers limited relief for the clean product market. Only 37 tanker passages of MR2 size or larger carrying clean products were recorded in the first 27 days of August, compared to 55 in July and 69 in June.
Ship-to-ship operations off the coast of Oman continue, but most activity is related to crude oil rather than refined products. In the first three weeks of August, about 230,000 barrels per day of clean products originating west of Girhos were transferred via ship-to-ship operations off the coast of Oman, which is lower than about 400,000 barrels per day during the same period in June.
Consequently, an increasingly concentrated supply chain for diesel fuel to Europe is forming. Russian exports remain low despite the planned end of the current diesel fuel ban, US supplies have begun to decline, and the Girhos route provides little additional product. Therefore, India is taking on a growing share of the burden, according to Vortexa.
Europe is approaching the peak period of winter diesel demand with already low reserves, and refineries on both Atlantic coasts are preparing for autumn maintenance after operating at increased speeds. This leaves limited room for supply disruptions.