The National Climate Center of China (NCC) reported this week the formation of a super strong El Niño event in the tropical Pacific Ocean, whose consequences may be felt until the summer of 2027.
The NCC expects that sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean will continue to rise amid fluctuations, reaching a peak around November and December. The peak intensity is projected to exceed 2.5 degrees Celsius, indicating a super strong phenomenon.
NCC chief forecaster Chen Licuan noted that this event could surpass three previous super strong El Niño events recorded during the 1982/1983, 1997/1998, and 2015/2016 periods, potentially becoming the strongest since data collection began.
Gu Wei, also a chief forecaster at NCC, stated that as El Niño rapidly develops, China is likely to face significant climatic anomalies in the coming seasons.
She suggested that the influence of this phenomenon may already be manifesting in summer weather, with an increased risk of flooding observed in central and eastern China.
Future outlooks indicate that El Niño will have a more substantial impact on temperature and precipitation in China during the autumn and winter period. Gu Wei forecasted above-average winter precipitation in many southern regions of China, with overall temperatures expected to be above normal. Nevertheless, frequent incursions of cold air can still cause sharp shifts between warm and cold conditions.
Furthermore, Gu warned that the impact of El Niño on China's climate could become even more pronounced in the summer of 2027. Precipitation in central and eastern China is expected to be generally above normal, with an especially high risk of torrential rains and flooding along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.
NCC also emphasized that the intensity of the El Niño event itself does not determine how severe its consequences will be in a specific location.