Despite the construction of new hospitals, roads, and office buildings in cities, there is a noticeable disappearance of children's laughter in parks, school closures, and empty maternity wards in hospitals. This situation is no longer science fiction but a harsh reality on our planet.
For a long time, society has been fed the idea of explosive population growth and resource depletion. However, official data from the United Nations and Our World in Data demonstrate a completely opposite and striking picture.
Sixty-four countries and regions have reached their maximum population level, or 'population peak.' This means that after reaching their highest value, the population in these countries has begun to decline.
Most surprisingly, the list of these 64 countries and regions includes not only small or military zones but also the world's largest and most influential economies. China, which has the second-largest population in the world, has already passed its peak, and its population is decreasing annually.
In South Korea, the birth rate is the lowest in the world, at about 0.72, which predicts a more than twofold population reduction by the end of this century. Similarly, other Asian nations such as Japan and Thailand are also showing a rapid decline.
Geographically, if we consider continents, East and Southeast Asia include China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and Thailand. In Europe, this list includes Italy, Germany, Spain, Poland, Ukraine, Russia, and Austria. In the Caribbean and Latin America, Cuba, Puerto Rico, Jamaica, Uruguay, Dominica, Martinique, Guadeloupe, Curaçao, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, Saint Martin, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, as well as the US Virgin Islands and the Falkland Islands are listed.
Europe and Japan entered this phase more than ten years ago. In Japan, diapers for the elderly are currently sold in greater quantities than toys and diapers for children. Thousands of schools have been permanently closed due to a lack of students.
At the same time, in Eastern European countries such as Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria, declining birth rates combined with youth migration to other countries is the main reason for population decrease.
It should be noted that this decline is caused not by epidemics, wars, or natural disasters, but by fundamental changes in the lifestyle and mindset of human society.
To maintain population stability, any country requires an average of 2.1 children per woman, known as the replacement rate. Today, more than half of the world's population lives in countries where this figure is significantly below 2.1.
Rising prices and urbanization also contribute to this problem. The cost of raising children, obtaining quality education, and maintaining a home in large cities has become so high that couples hesitate to have more than one child. Furthermore, more women are pursuing education, making it a priority for their careers and independently deciding against marriage or children later in life. These social changes directly reflect in demographic indicators.
The shrinking map of these 64 countries serves as a serious warning for all states where the population is still growing. According to the latest UN forecasts, countries in South America, such as Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina, will reach their peak population by the decade of 2050.
By the decade of 2060, India will follow. Today's most populous country in the world, India, will reach its highest level, estimated at about 1.7 billion people, in the 2060s. After this, India will also begin a period of population decline.
The global peak is expected in 2084, when the Earth's population will approach 10.3 billion people. At that moment, for the first time in human history, the overall global population trend will begin to irreversibly decline.
One might ask whether the population is declining in wealthy countries like America. The answer is no. Although the birth rate is low in America, according to UN data, its peak will not occur until the end of this century. The main reason for this is immigration, i.e., the arrival of foreign migrants. America provides opportunities for millions of young people every year, who compensate for the declining birth rate.
The biggest and most serious challenges of the future will be labor shortages. The era of cheap and unlimited labor will come to an end. The number of workers will decrease, forcing companies to rely entirely on robotics, automation, and artificial intelligence.
There will also be a huge strain on pensions and healthcare. The number of elderly people dependent on pensions or medical care will double or triple, while the number of young taxpayers will decrease. This will lead to reduced government revenues and pressure on the social security system.