The South African Weather Service (SAWS) forecasts that South Africa may face record heat, reduced rainfall, and more frequent severe heatwaves in 2027 if a very strong El Niño event develops.
SAWS reported that a strong El Niño has formed in the Pacific Ocean, which is likely to intensify during the spring in the Southern Hemisphere. According to the latest forecasts, El Niño could reach its strongest ever observed form.
Current sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern central tropical Pacific have already exceeded the threshold for a strong El Niño. A strong El Niño is defined as sea surface temperatures exceeding normal by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, while a very strong event exceeds this by 2 degrees.
According to SAWS, current forecasts indicate that this anomaly could exceed 3 degrees Celsius, as reported by the Xinhua news agency. Most El Niño events lead to conditions of insufficient rainfall and elevated temperatures in the southern region of Africa, although not every such event causes drought.
SAWS's forecast for the period from October to December 2026 predicts low rainfall and high temperatures across most of South Africa, with similar conditions expected from November 2026 to January 2027. The service noted that the anticipated very strong El Niño in 2026/27 combined with global warming is likely to result in 2027 being the hottest year on record.
SAWS reminded that the 2015/16 El Niño brought unprecedented heatwaves to Southern Africa. The service warned that the expected rainfall deficit could be accompanied by a high frequency of potentially serious heatwaves. The agency also stated that there remains uncertainty regarding the ultimate strength and regional impact of El Niño, and it will closely monitor risks such as heatwaves and water scarcity.