A highly successful film by Christopher Nolan, titled Odyssey (2026), based on Homer's poems, narrates Odysseus' return to his family and kingdom after the Trojan War. This mythological story takes place at the end of the period known as the Bronze Age, an era already in a state of collapse. Although the main reason for this decline is attributed to a severe regional drought, the exact origin of the water scarcity remains unknown.
Among the most accepted theories are climate change and the process of 'aridification' in the Mediterranean regions, where the climate became extremely dry. However, research conducted by Stockholm University in Sweden and published in the journal Science Advances suggests that fluctuations in the Atlantic Ocean may have intensified this process.
Analysis of the Eastern Mediterranean
This study was conducted by researchers Katherine Power and Qiong Zhang, from the university's Department of Physical Geography. The Eastern Mediterranean underwent a process of gradual aridification, not a sudden event. According to the research, this trend was linked to changes in the amount of solar radiation received during the summer in the Northern Hemisphere.
The decrease in insolation resulted in the weakening of the Northern Hemisphere's monsoon systems and caused a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), an equatorial band characterized by concentrated rainfall and clouds. Consequently, less moisture was transported from tropical Africa to the Mediterranean. Simultaneously, the route of winter storms shifted northward, reducing precipitation in the area.
Climate changes, however, did not manifest uniformly across all examined areas. While the Levant, which includes current territories of Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan, recorded more arid conditions, certain parts of the Balkans in southeastern Europe and Anatolia, corresponding to most of modern Turkey, presented a different scenario.
In these locations, an increase in humidity was observed, associated with cooling temperatures and reduced evapotranspiration—the mechanism by which water returns to the atmosphere through evaporation and vegetation. Therefore, despite the trend of aridification in the Eastern Mediterranean, the impacts of climate change were varied in other regions.
Drought Amplification
The analysis demonstrates that Atlantic oscillations managed to potentiate the drying trend that already existed in the Eastern Mediterranean. In practical terms, the ocean may have acted as a catalyst, transforming an increasingly dry climatic condition into episodes of much more severe drought.
The study emphasizes that this influence is linked to various patterns of variation in the Atlantic, including changes in the North Atlantic sea surface temperature and oceanic circulation. The researchers established correlations between these oscillations and humidity levels in the Mediterranean across different timescales.
For the researchers, the findings indicate that modifications in oceanic behavior are capable of generating rapid climate changes, especially when an area is already facing unfavorable environmental and climatic circumstances. In the context of the end of the Bronze Age, the research suggests that the combination of an already drier climate and changes in Atlantic conditions may have been responsible for the great droughts documented during that period.