The global situation has reached a critical point where it is unlikely to keep global warming within the 1.5 degree Celsius limit. According to a new report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the average temperature on Earth in the future may remain above this threshold.
The main issue is how much the temperature will rise and how successfully humanity can bring it back down. According to the report, even in the best-case scenarios, the temperature could rise to approximately 1.8 degrees Celsius, after which a gradual decrease is expected. Other forecasts indicate the possibility of a temperature increase of more than 2 degrees.
Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, the global community aimed to limit the temperature increase significantly below pre-industrial levels, trying to keep it at 1.5 degrees. However, this threshold does not mean the sudden start of a new catastrophe. Nevertheless, the higher the temperature increase, the more serious the threats related to droughts, floods, heatwaves, and other climate phenomena can become.
In 2024, the average global temperature exceeded the 1.5-degree mark for the first time on an annual basis, reaching approximately 1.55 degrees Celsius. Scientists are analyzing long-term temperature trends, not just data from a single year.
UNEP states that returning the temperature to around 1.5 degrees will require carbon dioxide removal technologies. However, the effectiveness of these technologies is currently limited. Therefore, instead of relying solely on technology, it is necessary to accelerate and continuously reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Climatologist Ajay Mathur cited a disaster in Nepal, linking it to risks caused by rising temperatures. According to him, the cost of rising temperatures sometimes manifests as loss of life and the destruction of entire settlements. The report emphasizes that efforts should not cease even after the 1.5-degree limit is breached. Since risks increase with every additional degree, the current goal is not only to halt the temperature rise but also to maximize its reduction.