A high-ranking government official noted that the Indian economy is capable of reaching a volume close to $20 trillion by 2046 if growth rates remain unchanged. This brings the country closer to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's goal of becoming a developed nation.
Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran stated in his op-ed piece in the newspaper Mint on Tuesday that achieving this goal does not require 'heroic assumptions.' He calculated that if real growth averages 7% annually over the next decade, and US inflation is around 3%, the annual growth in dollar terms will reach 10%.
To achieve the status of a developed country by 2047, his estimates suggest the economy needs to grow by approximately 9.3% per year. Nageswaran was responding to a Bloomberg News article from August 30, where economists argued that India would not be able to meet Modi's goal at current growth rates. The advisor emphasized that focus should be placed on growth rates in dollar equivalent, rather than real growth rates.
According to Nageswaran's data, the Indian economy has shown an average annual growth rate in dollar terms of 8.8% between 2000 and 2024, compared to 6.3% when adjusted for inflation.
Nevertheless, the speaker also pointed out that a GDP volume of about $20 trillion by 2046 is still below the $30 trillion threshold assessed by the Niti Aayog government analytical center as necessary for recognizing India as a developed economy. To achieve this status, the think tank states that a per capita income of $18,000 is required, whereas it was $2,813 in 2025.
Nageswaran added that net foreign direct investment, job creation, and savings and investment rates are 'real constraints' on growth, although they point more towards opportunities for improvement than to the limits of India's potential.
India continues to be one of the world's largest fast-growing economies; this week's data showed that GDP grew by 7.8% compared to the previous year in the April-June quarter. After the GDP data release, Modi highly praised the impressive results of the economy while urging Indians to avoid unnecessary gold purchases, reduce overseas travel and weddings abroad, and purchase products made in India.