According to the report, India's e-commerce market is projected to nearly triple by 2030, reaching a volume of $345 billion USD compared to $125 billion in 2024. This growth is driven by the active development of quick commerce and the integration of artificial intelligence (AI).
The research consulting company Infisum published a report titled 'Smart Growth in a Fast Market.' According to this study, the market is expected to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 18.4 percent until 2030.
The report highlights that the country's dark store network should almost triple: from 2,525 units in 2025 to approximately 7,500 by 2030 to meet the growing demand for fast delivery.
Quick commerce is the fastest-growing segment of the Indian e-commerce ecosystem. By 2030, this segment is valued at $65–70 billion and, according to the report, is expected to account for 45–50 percent of retail growth over the next five years.
In the competitive quick commerce segment, Blinkit leads, holding a 44 percent market share due to processing 900 million orders in fiscal year 26. It is followed by Zepto and Swiggy Instamart with market shares of 25 and 20 percent, respectively.
The report identifies Generation Z as a key growth driver, as it already accounts for almost a third of online shoppers and is expected to become the largest cohort of digital consumers in the country by 2030. Furthermore, expansion extends beyond major cities: 66 percent of direct-to-consumer (D2C) new orders now come from second and third-tier cities.
By the end of the decade, e-commerce is expected to constitute 10–12 percent of India's total retail expenditure and contribute 2.5 percent of the national GDP, serving about 420–440 million online shoppers.
Technologically, AI and machine learning are predicted to boost retail productivity by 35–37 percent by 2030. Innovations such as conversational commerce, AI shopping assistants, and virtual try-ons are fundamentally changing how consumers discover products and make purchases.