Experts have issued a warning about the dangers to aviation resulting from the rising temperature of the Mediterranean Sea. Tommaso Alberti, a researcher at the Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) and lead author of a study on the impact of atmospheric warming, stated that if the Mediterranean continues to warm, there is a probability of conditions favorable for the formation of more vigorous storms, both in summer and during the autumn and winter months, affecting the response capacity of airport infrastructure and flight operations.
The research, published in the scientific journal 'Atmospheric Science Letters', focused on analyzing a storm that hit Fiumicino Airport in Rome on December 13, 2024. This event resulted in at least eight diversions, delays, and waiting periods, totaling about three hours of intense convective activity, characterized by the upward movement of hot air caused by surface warming.
The researchers compared the atmospheric conditions observed in this incident with previous periods (1979-2000) and more recent ones (2002-2023). The findings indicate that the thermodynamic context where such configurations occur has undergone significant changes.
In the most recent period, an increase of approximately two degrees Celsius in air temperatures was noted in vast regions of Italy, while the sea surface temperature in the Mediterranean basin rose by about 1.5 degrees Celsius across most of the basin.
The study also identified variations in wind shear—that is, sudden and abrupt changes in wind direction and intensity—in addition to gusts and reduced visibility, all crucial parameters during decisive moments of flight, such as takeoff and landing.
Tommaso Alberti clarified that the most relevant point of the work is that the atmospheric configurations generating these phenomena have not changed, but rather the climatic scenario in which they occur.
A warmer Mediterranean introduces larger volumes of heat and humidity into the atmosphere, which potentiates the energy available for the creation of extremely intense storms. Such events can cause heavy rainfall, severe wind gusts, low visibility, and other serious meteorological phenomena.
The specific case of Fiumicino is notable because it occurred in December, given that the heat accumulated during the summer can persist in subsequent months, extending favorable conditions for convection into autumn and winter.
The negative impacts detailed by INGV are considerable when these events affect an airport hub like Rome, as storms, strong winds, torrential rains, and reduced visibility can generate diversions and delays, which, in such an interconnected network as Europe's, can propagate to other national and international airports.
The experts add that this does not imply an increase in the frequency of storms in all areas, but rather that they may occur within a progressively warmer and more energetic environment. The next step of the investigation will be to apply this analysis to future climate projections to understand how severe convection and its impacts on major Mediterranean connection nodes may evolve.