According to the latest data from the ECMWF meteorological model, rainfall in most parts of the country may be below normal in September and October. These forecasts point to a reduction in rainfall across extensive regions of the country during these two months.
However, in places such as Jammu and Kashmir, South Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Northeast India, precipitation may remain within normal limits. If current forecasts hold, this could lead to lower precipitation levels in several parts of the country at the end of the monsoon season.
This forecast comes against the backdrop of the 2026 monsoon already showing signs of weakening. Previously, the IMD predicted that the total rainfall across the entire country during the monsoon season from June to September would be about 90 percent of the normal amount.
September is the concluding month of the monsoon, and rains during this period are critical for agriculture and water resource provision. A lack of precipitation in September can lead to reduced soil moisture and decreased reservoir filling. The consequences of reduced rainfall may affect areas heavily dependent on rain for farming more severely, and it may also impact water availability in subsequent months.
According to the ECMWF model, rainfall in Jammu and Kashmir, South Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Northeast India may meet normal levels in September-October. This only means that the total rainfall over the two months might be close to the average, not that it will rain or pour heavily every day there. It should be noted that the IMD's forecast for Northeast India was more favorable compared to other regions, as IMD anticipated the possibility of normal rainfall in this region during the monsoon season.
The forecasts of reduced precipitation in other parts of the country in September-October may cause concern, especially if the rains in September are weak. This could create a water deficit before the end of the monsoon period. Reduced precipitation will affect not only agriculture but also the water level in rivers, ponds, and reservoirs, although the impact of this phenomenon will vary in each state and region.
It is important to note that the ECMWF forecast is a long-term model assessment and should not be considered a definitive weather prediction. The climatic situation may change, and the precipitation forecast may be adjusted as updated models are released. A clearer picture of exactly how much precipitation will fall in September-October can be expected in the coming days through updates from the IMD and other meteorological services.