A significant increase in the cost of gasoline and diesel fuel is expected starting Wednesday, September 2nd, as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East puts pressure on global oil prices.
Fuel price data for the end of the month from the Central Energy Fund indicates an increase in gasoline prices by approximately 96 cents for 93 unleaded fuel and 1.07 riyals for 95 unleaded fuel. Forecasts for diesel fuel look even more serious: according to CEF data, prices could rise by approximately 2.71 riyals for 500 ppm diesel and 2.92 riyals for 50 ppm. A price increase of approximately 2.12 riyals is also predicted for kerosene.
It is important to note that these forecasts are based on unofficial CEF data; the official adjustment will be announced by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources early this week. Furthermore, the Slate Levy, currently at 61 cents, may affect final calculations, as this levy compensates oil companies for fluctuations in international prices from the previous month.
Fuel Price Volatility
2026 has been extremely unstable for South African fuel prices. Between March and August, the price of 95 unleaded gasoline increased by 5.24 riyals, and the wholesale price of diesel fuel rose by 7.60 riyals. Currently, a liter of 95 unleaded fuel costs 25.30 riyals on the coast and 26.17 riyals inland, while 93 unleaded fuel sells for 25.42 riyals. The wholesale price of 500 ppm diesel fuel is 25.29 riyals on the coast and 26.16 riyals inland. These current prices follow a decrease in the prices of both grades of gasoline by 52 cents per liter in early August, while diesel fuel increased by 1.23 riyals (50 ppm) and 1.38 riyals (500 ppm).
The peak price for gasoline was reached in June at 27.19 riyals, and the maximum mark for diesel fuel was recorded in May at 30.30 riyals.
International oil markets have shown significant volatility since the start of the war between the US and Israel with Iran's involvement at the end of February, with the critical Strait of Hormuz largely closed to shipping.
There is little hope on the horizon. Oil prices remain significantly above their pre-war levels of around $70 per barrel. Although Brent Crude traded around the $90 mark for most of August, this is still substantially below the high of $126 reached earlier this year.
JP Morgan Global Research now forecasts that the average price of Brent crude oil in the third quarter of 2026 will be $86 per barrel, then drop to $80 in the fourth quarter, and reach $78 by the end of the year. The bank noted that the oil market has rebalanced because demand losses were greater than expected, and withdrawals from commercial reserves in OECD countries were less than anticipated. China was cited as an example of potential demand destruction. JP Morgan also expects that the long-term damage to oil production in the Persian Gulf region will be limited, although uncertainty regarding the future of OPEC may complicate oil price forecasts.