The first signs of the El Niño phenomenon are already being observed in Brazil and are expected to intensify soon. This event, characterized by the warming of the waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean, generally results in higher rainfall in the southern region of the country, while intensifying drought in the North and Northeast areas.
However, there is a recurring pattern across the entire Brazilian territory: extreme heat. According to information provided by the National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (Cemaden), it is estimated that Brazil will experience a minimum of six heatwaves by the end of this year.
Cemaden data points to a change in the behavior of these heatwaves over the last two decades. During the 1980s and 1990s, these episodes were uncommon and more restricted to specific locations, such as the Northeast. However, starting from 2010, and notably after 2020, they began to impact a much wider area of the territory, affecting the country simultaneously instead of being limited to a single geographical point. In other words, heatwaves have become more frequent and more widespread.
The 2023-2024 biennium represented the peak of this historical series, recording nine heatwaves between August and December, which is more than double the national average of four occurrences. Despite this, this record could be surpassed soon, given that the possibility of a Super El Niño has not been ruled out, which would lead to even more severe weather in the coming months.
Although the exact date cannot yet be determined, the first heatwave of this new cycle is expected to occur in September. Projections indicate that temperatures will be above average across almost all of Brazil, potentially reaching levels up to 3°C higher than the average.