IMRI developed a new method for forecasting Uzbekistan's regional economic growth until 2030

A seminar was held in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, at the Institute of Macroeconomic and Regional Studies (IMRS) under the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan, where information on Uzbekistan's key achievements and future goals in the context of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) was presented.

Participants gathered to assess national progress against key SDG indicators and identify areas requiring further effort. One of the most significant results noted at the seminar was the sharp decline in the national poverty rate: it fell from 17 percent in 2021 to 5.8 percent by 2025. Over the same period, the total number of people living in poverty decreased from 6 million to 2.2 million.

Officials attributed this improvement to targeted social policies, support for entrepreneurship, job creation, human capital development, and work at the local community level within the 'mahalla' system. Progress was also noted in expanding access to preschool and higher education, as well as in promoting gender equality.

Labor Market Challenges and Youth Employment

Nevertheless, difficulties persist regarding women's participation in the labor market, which stands at 43 to 45 percent compared to approximately 70 percent for men. According to International Labour Organization estimates presented at the event, the gender pay gap in the country is between 25–35 percent.

The main focus of the discussions was youth employment, as about 600 thousand young people enter the Uzbek labor market annually. The youth unemployment rate was 8 percent in 2024, and the share of young people who are not in education, not in employment, and not in training (NEET) decreased from 25.3 percent in 2005 to 13.7 percent in 2025.

A lack of practical experience continues to hinder professionals entering the workforce. Analysis of resumes on the Mehnat.uz portal showed that 69.1 percent of young applicants have no prior experience. In a survey conducted by IMRS, 27.2 percent of respondents cited job searching as their most pressing problem, while 25 percent highlighted learning a foreign language.

Digitalization and Energy

Uzbekistan also demonstrated successes in developing its digital economy and artificial intelligence. The country improved its ranking in the AI Readiness Index, rising from 95th place in 2020 to 62nd place in 2025. Seminar participants noted that the next priority for this sector is expanding computing power and technological infrastructure.

In the energy sector, the total installed generation capacity almost doubled between 2016 and 2025, reaching 26.9 GW. Solar and wind generation provided 7.6 GW, accounting for 28.2 percent of the total capacity. In recent years, the sector has attracted about $23 billion in foreign investment.

Participants pointed out a discrepancy between international statistics and the actual situation on the ground. Specifically, Uzbekistan's indicator on the share of renewable energy in final consumption, presented in the 2026 Sustainable Development Goals Report, is based on 2022 data. Consequently, recent changes in the energy sector, including newly commissioned generating capacity, are not yet fully reflected in some global SDG metrics.

Event participants emphasized that further progress toward the SDGs will require expanding scientific research, improving the quality and timeliness of statistical data, evidence-based decision-making, and regular evaluation of implemented measures.

India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has raised its forecast for real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in India for 2026–2027 by 10 basis points, bringing it to 6.8 percent from the previously projected 6.7 percent in May. The reason for this increase is lower than expected global crude oil prices.

Nevertheless, the rating agency warned that the economic momentum will be constrained by the ongoing El Niño phenomenon, geopolitical difficulties, inflation, and trade risks. Consequently, actual figures are expected to remain significantly below the preliminary estimate of the National Statistical Office (NSO) of 7.6 percent for the 2026 fiscal year.

Economic Forecast Details

In its mid-year economic outlook report, the agency listed risk factors for GDP growth in the 2027 fiscal year. These include geopolitical events, particularly the unresolved conflict in the Middle East, high overall inflation, currency depreciation, weaker than expected global trade growth, a base effect due to strong GDP growth in the 2026 fiscal year, the probable El Niño weather pattern, and the recent announcement by the US government regarding a 100 percent tariff on India for purchasing Russian crude oil.

Ind-Ra lowered its baseline estimate for crude oil prices for the 2027 fiscal year to $85 per barrel, which is lower than the initial forecast of $95 per barrel.

Devendra Kumar Pant, Chief Economist at Ind-Ra, noted during a press conference that the decline in oil prices below the initial forecast is a positive factor. He added that all else being equal, every $10 drop in oil prices leads to a 44 basis point increase in growth, but aspects related to monsoons partially offset this effect.

Climate Impact and Inflation

The agency considers weather-related risks, particularly El Niño, as the main constraint on Indian agricultural production and consumer prices. Rapid weather changes are already affecting food prices and consumer price inflation. The agency forecasts that the adverse base effect will contribute to food inflation for at least until October 2026.

Ind-Ra projects a slowdown in agricultural GDP growth to 2 percent in the 2027 fiscal year, compared to 3 percent in the 2026 fiscal year. A sharp jump in Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation to 8.5 percent is forecasted for the 2027 fiscal year (compared to 0.4 percent in 2026), while retail inflation according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will average 4.9 percent. Retail inflation is expected to peak at 5.9 percent in the third quarter of the 2027 fiscal year before declining to 5 percent by the fourth quarter of the 2027 fiscal year.

The agency also expects the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to maintain its current policy stance on interest rates and monetary policy throughout the remainder of the 2027 fiscal year.

Private consumption expenditure, which accounts for more than half of GDP, is expected to grow by 7.2 percent in the 2027 fiscal year, slower than the 7.7 percent growth in the 2026 fiscal year. Ind-Ra attributes this slowdown to higher inflation, weakening rural incomes due to the impact of El Niño on agriculture, and sluggish urban demand.

External risks remain high. The Current Account Deficit (CAD) is projected to widen to 1.5 percent of GDP in the 2027 fiscal year, up from 0.6 percent in the 2026 fiscal year.

Mega Arora, Director at Ind-Ra, emphasized that from a prospective view, attention should be paid to concerns over the US announcement of tariffs up to 100 percent on India for purchasing Russian crude oil. She added that although the US Senate passed the bill, it has not yet taken effect, and it remains a critical risk factor for India's trade trajectory.

Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) is projected to grow by 8 percent in the 2027 fiscal year, largely supported by public sector capital expenditure. Ind-Ra expects the central government to adhere to the budget deficit target of 4.3 percent of GDP.