When a change in taxes is announced, one of the main questions from consumers and businesses is whether this change will be reflected in the final price of goods and services. In the context of tax reform, there is no universally applicable answer, as the impact on each business will depend on how the new structure affects operational costs, available credits for utilization, and the profit margin the company wishes to maintain.
Additionally, the complete replacement of all current taxes with IBS and CBS will not happen all at once. The transition process began this year and will extend until 2033, during which various taxes will coexist in different phases. This gradual modification in the tax composition requires that any price analysis be contextualized to the specific moment of the transition.
Analysis by Marcos Oliveira
According to Marcos Oliveira, an accountant and tax specialist, the tax transformation will affect several phases of business operations, directly influencing the methodology companies use to set their prices. He emphasizes that the impact will be comprehensive, affecting everything from purchasing and sales methods to negotiation and cost transfer processes. This includes cash flow management both in the inflow and outflow of resources during commercial transactions, as well as established contracts.
It is essential to understand that looking only at the percentage applied to a sale is insufficient to measure the effect of the reform. Under the standard regime, legislation provides for the appropriation of IBS and CBS credits on certain acquisitions, provided the legal conditions are met. Therefore, the correct evaluation must weigh both the taxes levied on sales and the credits generated by purchases, calculating the result based on the company's actual operations and acquisitions.
The Federal Revenue Service introduces concepts of non-cumulativeness and neutrality in the new model, aiming to reduce cascading effects and the cumulativeness of taxation, in addition to mitigating distortions in economic decisions. In practice, this means that the rate of the new taxes, in isolation, is not enough to predict the behavior of the final price. For a company that acquires inputs, raw materials, goods, or services, the taxation of these acquisitions must be integrated into the analysis, as the IBS and CBS credits eligible for appropriation influence the tax result of the activity.
The legislation also establishes specific situations where the right to credit is not granted, which can lead to different financial results between companies operating in similar sectors but having different expense structures. Even after calculating costs and credits, the company must determine what margin it wishes to preserve.
View from Roberta Marques
Roberta Marques, a tax lawyer and attorney at the firm Araúz Advogados, points out that when evaluating the effects of the new taxation, it is essential to consider price, margin, and working capital. Thus, a change in tax cost does not automatically determine the final amount charged to the client; the outcome also depends on the corporate strategy adopted to protect the profit margin.
It is not an automatic determination
The reform does not mandate that the prices of products and services will rise or fall in equal proportions. The outcome depends on the specifics of each operation and how the company manages costs, credits, and margins. The neutrality mentioned by the government aims to reduce cumulative effects and economic distortions, but this does not allow concluding that all prices will remain stable or follow the same pattern.
For Oliveira, the recommended approach is to conduct a detailed simulation specific to the business itself. He advises assessing the impact on the product or service, taking into account customers, suppliers, and contracts before making any decision. Based on this analysis, each company can outline its commercial strategy, deciding whether to pass part of the impact on the price or absorb it in the margin, since the reform does not dictate which alternative should be chosen.
The commercial decision must also consider the market environment in which the company operates and the behavior of its competitors. Passing on costs can generate different consequences depending on the level of competition and the relationship with customers.
Oliveira reinforces the importance of analyzing customers, suppliers, and contracts, conducting a personalized simulation before proceeding. Agreements already made deserve special attention, as he suggests reviewing these pacts and dialoguing with customers and suppliers about how each party plans to handle the transition. According to the accountant, generic tax clauses may be insufficient for the new landscape, which is particularly critical for companies with long-term contracts or pre-negotiated prices.
The answer also varies according to the timing of the calculation. Since the reform does not replace all current taxes simultaneously, the transition began in 2026, going through several phases between 2027 and 2032, concluding in 2033. This does not imply that all companies need to adjust prices at every phase, but rather that the tax composition used in the analysis changes over time, making a simulation of one stage unrepresentative of another.
There is no single pricing formula for all types of businesses. The starting point is mapping the current structure: costs, taxes, practiced prices, and margin. Subsequently, the company can compare this scenario with the projected taxation for each phase of the transition, considering purchases, sales, and applicable credits. With the new calculated scenario, it becomes possible to compare the projected margin with the current one and evaluate the commercial impact, integrating customers, suppliers, competitors, and contracts into this analysis, as advised by Oliveira. The goal is to obtain a specific projection for the business, rather than using general estimates. Although the reform may alter the accounting structure, the effect on the price requires a calculation based on the characteristics of each operation.