Springboks must beat All Blacks in Cape Town to keep series chances alive

The Springboks intend to utilize the capabilities of Ox Nche in the scrum battle and provide powerful drives to create decisive forward momentum against the All Blacks on Saturday. This match will be the toughest test for the Springboks this season as they face the All Blacks in the first test match of the greatest rugby rivalry at Ellis Park stadium, starting Saturday afternoon at 5:00 PM.

Despite the championship team confidently defeating England, Scotland, and Wales in the home Nations Championship, the confrontation with the New Zealand representatives will be completely different. The Kiwis are likely to match them physically and attempt to surpass them in key areas.

IOL Sport analyzed the main aspects where the Boks might gain an advantage.

Scrums

Ox Nche has returned from injury, and Vilko Lowe is on the other side of the Springboks' scrum. The team is ready for the start of the day's first match. It is not surprising if the Boks try to organize the scrum early in the game to get two props and hooker Malcolm Marx into play. This is a tactic they have used previously to gain early momentum.

This could be an area where the world champions can achieve absolute dominance. With two more reserve props and a hungry reserve tighthead, they are ready to apply pressure when needed.

Lineouts and Rucking Mauls

Marx has a strong desire to score tries using powerful rucking mauls, but his primary task is to ensure accurate ball delivery in the lineout to find jumpers such as Juan Northe, Pieter-Steph du Toit, and Eben Etzebeth. After this, the Boks have demonstrated their ingenuity by using various types of plays after an accurate lineout.

Whether it is organizing a bulky maul, which is much harder to defend under the new rules, creating clever combinations along the sideline, or attacking from the back, smart moves will certainly be made by the Boks in set-piece play.

Aerial Attacks

Accurate kicks will be crucial to demonstrating their superiority in the air. This depends on the shoulders of midfielder Grant Williams, winger Sachi Feinberg-Mongomasezulu, and fullback Damian Willemse. Smart passes will allow their wingers numerous opportunities to chase high balls and contest in the air.

Even winning the ball back after an attack from broken play has been one of the Boks' strengths. Nevertheless, they will have to face winger Will Jordan, who is one of the best players in the world at handling high balls.

Picks and Go

Route number one, as it is often called, could be an excellent backup plan for the Springboks if they want to change their game plan. Among the strong ball carriers are Jasper Wiese, Eben Etzebeth, Marx, and Pieter-Steph du Toit, who are capable of causing chaos in the contact zone and open play.

However, they will have to act strategically when carrying the ball into contact. The All Blacks have excellent players capable of securing the ball, and they are physically ready for this challenge. Therefore, smart ball carrying, without isolation, could be a key moment.

Rassie Erasmus admitted to feeling nervous ahead of the upcoming clash between the Springboks and the All Blacks, but emphasized that both teams will play at their maximum capacity at Ellis Park stadium.

Before the start of the first test match in this greatest rugby rivalry, Erasmus stated that the Boks team does not intend to slow down, even knowing that the series in Johannesburg will not be decided by a single match. He noted that no member of the management, players, coaching staff, physiotherapist, or medical staff wishes to lose the first match, so they will certainly put forth all their efforts to win.

Nevertheless, the Boks coach understands that a defeat at the beginning of the series is not fatal. Previously, the Boks lost the first match of the British and Irish Lions series in 2021, but then won the next two. They also recovered from a loss to New Zealand in the group stage of the 2019 World Cup to win the Webb Ellis Cup. A similar situation occurred in the 2023 World Cup when they lost a group match against Ireland.

Erasmus predicts that the fate of the entire series will only be determined in the third match. He suggested that one could lose the first match and win the next two, or lose the first and win the second, and the third match might not be decisive, with the fourth match in Baltimore becoming the deciding factor. He added that there will always be time to return to the series, but winning the first match is always preferable, and both teams will fight for it with full power.

Furthermore, Erasmus realizes that this test match is only the beginning of a physically demanding campaign, and believes that player management could be a decisive factor. The Boks deliberately kept their players in better condition compared to their New Zealand counterparts during preparation. Over the last six weeks, New Zealand averaged 200 minutes per player, while the Boks used about 130 minutes per player. He stressed that players' form cannot be judged by matches played before this period, as they do not reflect current readiness for play, and that the main focus is on maintaining squad freshness.

Erasmus expects injuries to play a significant role as the series progresses. He is one hundred percent sure that by the third round, which could be the most important, there will be another six or seven injuries in each camp. This is why managing player playing time is of enormous importance.

Despite the series being a marathon, Erasmus knows the psychological value of an early advantage. He stated that if they manage to strike the first blow in the first match, it will be a huge achievement.

The Boks coach was also asked whether the All Blacks are the team South Africa most wants to beat in world rugby. His answer reflected both the history between the two countries and his personal experience of feeling underestimated when the Boks were recovering. Erasmus assured that he would answer honestly, as he always tries to respect other countries. He recalled times when the Boks were ranked sixth in the world, and the All Blacks, England, and Ireland only discussed major world teams, which caused unpleasant feelings.

However, he did not hide what the rivalry with the All Blacks means to him, nor the pressure it creates. Erasmus admitted that the preparation is not without nervousness: 'If I say that this preparation is not causing nervousness, I will be lying. Sitting here, I am nervous. I am not going to pretend that I am not nervous. The team is nervous. I think the fans are nervous too. But I am almost sure that on the other side it is the same. We can look calm, we can say that we are completely in control of the situation, but no, it is colossal.' In this rivalry, which needs no exaggeration, Erasmus agreed that the Springbok versus All Black match is at the very top of the rugby hierarchy. He concluded that if it is not the greatest rivalry, it is only slightly below that title, and it is a very emotional and proud thing to be part of it.

Team Lineups for Ellis Park:

The Springboks squad includes: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10 Sasha Feynberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Grant Williams, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit (captain), 6 Paul de Villiers, 5 Juan Nortje, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Wilko Lou, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Ox Nche. Reserves: 16 Jan-Hendrik Vessels, 17 Gerhard Steenkamp, 18 Zachary Porten, 19 Kobus Wiese, 20 Andre Estherhoizen, 21 Marco van Staden, 22 Kobus Reinhans, 23 Mani Libbok.

The All Blacks squad includes: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Quinn Tupaea, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Josh Murphy, 10 Ruben Law, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Ardie Savea (captain), 7 Luke Jakobson, 6 Tupou Va'a, 5 Fabian Holland, 4 Josh Lord, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Cody Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot. Reserves: 16 Asafu Amua, 17 George Bower, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Anton Segner, 20 Peter Lakai, 21 Kyle Preston, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Leroy Carter.

The recent tour by the New Zealand team against South African franchises provided the All Blacks with a significant advantage in terms of acclimatization to local conditions and rest before the test match against the Springboks at Ellis Park.

One of the positive aspects for New Zealand was that the All Blacks team would be accustomed to South African conditions by the time they faced the Springboks on Saturday in Johannesburg. Following a successful start to the tour, where they won 38–21 against the Stormers on August 7, the All Blacks demonstrated dominance, defeating the Sharks 54–0, and subsequently surpassing the Bulls 50–19.

Meanwhile, the Springboks traveled to Argentina for a match on August 8 against Los Pumas, which they won 17–10 in Buenos Aires. Although the home side managed to adapt to South African conditions before the first test, the visitors may feel like the more prepared team at this moment.

Saturday's match will be the first of four test games between South Africa and New Zealand over the next month. Despite New Zealand using a wide squad during the tour matches, the time spent in the country gives them the biggest advantage, as their actual travel demands have significantly decreased.

For leading rugby players, minimal travel is a luxury usually only available in retirement. This lighter schedule allowed the All Blacks to enjoy quality rest off the field, sightseeing in the Rainbow Nation. However, Saturday is the time to get back to work, and the well-rested yet battle-tested All Blacks squad intends to make a strong impression on the Springboks.