The metals market is showing stronger trends towards the end of August compared to two weeks prior. Precious metals are supported by the weakening US dollar, concerns over US national debt, and expectations for new signals from the Federal Reserve.
Industrial metals follow a different logic: here, factors such as physical supply shortages, low inventory levels, and changes in trade flows are more significant than macroeconomic indicators.
Gold is trading in the range of about $4630–$4650 per ounce, approaching three-month highs. Silver is holding at approximately $68–$69 per ounce and is also near recent high levels. After a period of pressure, investors have returned to safe-haven assets as markets react nervously to the US debt situation, yield fluctuations, and potential government intervention in the debt market. Gold is now viewed not only as protection against geopolitical risks but also as insurance against broader macroeconomic risks.
Nevertheless, it is too early to speak of a calm uptrend. The focus remains on inflation in the US, and investors await data on the PCE index, which the Federal Reserve uses as one of its primary measures of price pressure. If the data proves softer, gold and silver may continue to rise. However, if inflation proves persistent, markets could quickly revert to expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy. Thus, precious metals are trading at high levels, but their future direction depends on the dollar exchange rate, yields, and statements from the US central bank.
Platinum and palladium have also recovered amid overall demand for precious metals. Platinum is trading within $1860–$1900 per ounce, and palladium is around $1330–$1360 per ounce. However, the picture in this group differs significantly. Platinum appears more resilient due to forecasts of supply shortages and demand from hybrid vehicles, where platinum group metals are still necessary for catalytic systems. Palladium is weaker: in the long term, it continues to face pressure from the growing share of electric vehicles and the gradual replacement of palladium with platinum in automotive catalysts.
Copper remains the main topic in the industrial metals segment. Prices have risen above $6.7 per pound and reached a record high. Formally, demand for this metal is supported by conventional long-term factors such as the energy transition, data center construction, AI development, and electrical grid modernization. But another powerful factor has emerged: expectations of possible US import tariffs. Traders are actively moving metal into the US market, reducing available stocks in other regions. As a result, the market, which previously seemed balanced, is once again perceived as tight.
Zinc has become another clear example of how quickly the market reacts to shortages. Prices have risen almost to $3860 per ton, the highest level in four years. The metal is supported by low inventory levels, production disruptions, and market caution following previous supply tightening. Exports from China have somewhat improved conditions for buyers, but have not solved the problem entirely: available metal remains limited, and any news of mine or plant disruptions quickly brings buyers back to the market.
Aluminum is trading at a price of about $3240 per ton and appears calmer than copper and zinc, yet its fundamental situation also remains tense. Over the past year, this metal has grown by almost 23%, while LME inventory levels previously fell to the lowest level in 36 years. This indicates that the physical market remains tight: a formal recovery in supply may occur through the restart of production capacities, but this process will not be fast. The inventory structure adds another layer of complexity, as a significant portion consists of metal that not all buyers are ready to accept.
Overall, the metals market is once again divided into two main stories. Precious metals depend on inflation, the dollar exchange rate, yields, and Federal Reserve rhetoric. Industrial metals are increasingly supported by actual shortages, low inventories, and long-term demand from the energy, infrastructure, and technology sectors. Consequently, even if macroeconomic conditions periodically put pressure on commodities, copper, zinc, and aluminum remain the segment where fundamental support appears most pronounced.
