International investors assessing Uzbekistan prioritize policy stability and predictability over individual reform measures, according to Roman Rybalkin, Director of Sovereign Ratings for Central Asia at S&P Global Ratings.
Speaking at a panel discussion on capital and investment during the Silk Road Finance and Technology Forum in Tashkent on August 24, 2026, Rybalkin noted that discussions with investors revealed two main requirements: economic growth and operational predictability. He emphasized that Uzbekistan has demonstrated confident expansion, supported by an average annual growth of 6% since 2017, as well as favorable demographic trends in Central Asia.
Rybalkin directly linked S&P's decision to raise Uzbekistan's sovereign credit rating in 2025 to the consistent implementation of policies by the authorities and interdepartmental coordination.
Risks and Forecasts
Nevertheless, the agency warned that several cyclical factors supporting macroeconomic stability in recent years will not last indefinitely. High gold prices and strong remittance flows helped manage the current account deficit, but falling commodity prices create future risks for the state budget and external balance.
S&P forecasts that a drop in gold prices during 2027–2028 could reduce Uzbekistan's current account receipts by approximately 1% of GDP. Furthermore, a $500 change in gold prices could affect government revenues, including taxes and mining dividends, by nearly $1 billion. Regional credit assessments also monitor climatic conditions affecting hydropower in neighboring Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.
In response to the agency's comments, the Chairman of the Central Bank of Uzbekistan, Timur Ishmetov, acknowledged the presence of external risks related to oil and food prices. Ishmetov stated that while global turmoil has not yet had a direct impact on Uzbekistan, the regulator is closely monitoring potential secondary transmission effects.