A super El Niño is forming in the Pacific Ocean and has currently reached significant strength. According to climatologist James Hansen, the amount of heat accumulated in the upper 300 meters of the Pacific Ocean near the equator has exceeded the levels of the very strong El Niño of 1997-98. Notably, the most powerful phase of this El Niño is yet to come.
The consequences of this phenomenon may manifest in global temperature and weather at the end of 2026 and in 2027. Scientists note that during El Niño, a large amount of heat from the ocean is transferred to the atmosphere, which could potentially lead to a further increase in the already warming Earth's temperature. Scientists from the UK Meteorological Office have also stated that if current forecasts prove correct, this El Niño could be among the strongest in recent times.
To assess the strength of El Niño, scientists measure the temperature in various parts of the ocean. James Hansen confirms that the heat accumulated in the upper 300 meters of the sea is greater than during the major El Niño of 1997-98. However, there are some disagreements among scientists regarding the Nino 3.4 scale.
According to scientist Adam Skyfe from the Meteorological Office, the temperature in this region is currently about 2 degrees Celsius above normal. Although this is a lot, it is less than the 2.5 degree Celsius increase observed during the peak of 1997-98. Meanwhile, scientist Daniel Sven claims that the Nino 3.4 level is currently the highest for this time of year.
The main concern associated with the current El Niño is the possibility of its intensity further strengthening. Scientists from the Meteorological Office note that such a strong El Niño situation has not been observed in their forecasts before. If these assumptions are confirmed, the most noticeable impact may appear at the end of 2026 and the beginning of 2027. Scientist Kevin Trenberth has also called the current El Niño the largest to date, although there is no full consensus among scientists on whether it can be called the strongest.
El Niño also affects the planet's average temperature. During this phenomenon, some ocean heat enters the atmosphere, contributing to the rise in global temperature. Scientists suggest that the Earth's average temperature could significantly increase in 2027, challenging the records of 2024.
Furthermore, El Niño is capable of changing precipitation patterns and weather conditions. In several countries, including India, there may be a decrease or increase in rainfall. Droughts and increased heat may also occur in some areas.
This time, El Niño is intensifying during a period when the Earth is already warmed by human activity. Therefore, scientists' concern is not only related to El Niño itself. The combined effect of El Niño and global warming could lead to an even greater rise in temperature.
In the coming months, scientists will closely monitor sea temperatures and the strength of El Niño. If current forecasts prove correct, this El Niño could surpass old records and intensify global warming in 2027.