Roman Rybalkin, Director of S&P Global Ratings, stated that a possible decline in global gold prices during 2027–2028 could negatively impact Uzbekistan's foreign economic situation and lead to a decrease in current account receipts by approximately 1% of GDP.
The presentation took place in Tashkent at the Silk Road Finance and Technology Forum on August 24, 2026. Rybalkin noted that although Central Asian countries have benefited from high gold prices and strong inflows of external funds in recent years, such favorable external conditions will not last forever.
He also pointed to an additional risk associated with a possible deterioration in labor market conditions in countries that are primary sources of labor income and remittances to Central Asia.
Gold remains a crucial factor determining both Uzbekistan's external balances and state revenues. S&P Global Ratings forecasts a drop in gold prices in 2027–2028, which, according to Rybalkin's warning, could limit the country's financial prospects.
According to S&P estimates, a change in the price of gold by $500 is capable of altering Uzbekistan's state revenues by less than $1 billion due to fluctuations in tax revenues, dividends from mining companies, and other sources of income.
In addition to gold, Rybalkin highlighted potential external risks related to rising fuel and food prices, as well as climatic conditions such as precipitation levels affecting hydropower generation in Central Asia. He emphasized the particular criticality of water levels for Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, while Uzbekistan plans to import significant volumes of electricity from large hydroelectric power plants under construction in neighboring states.
Gold is one of the key export commodities and sources of foreign currency for Uzbekistan, supporting external balances and constituting a significant part of the Central Bank's international reserves. In 2025, sudden revenues from gold trade increased tax collection, allowing the government to increase state expenditures by 41.2 trillion soms, equivalent to $3.43 billion.