US threats of imposing 'the harshest sanctions in history' to force Iran to comply with demands after nearly six months of conflict have increased the likelihood of a new escalation in the Persian Gulf.
The question of how Iran might react to such economic pressure remains open. Among possible measures is the possibility of restricting oil exports from the Middle East.
Mohsen Rezaei, former head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, has already warned about a potential halt in oil exports. He stated that if the economic war continues, 'not a single drop of oil will be exported, neither through the Strait of Hormuz nor from anywhere in the Persian Gulf.'
Previously, Iranian attacks and threats against shipping have already led to the stoppage of most traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which before the conflict transported about one-fifth of the world's energy. Although some tankers continue to move through the strait in recent weeks, volumes remain extremely low. Furthermore, on Sunday, Iran placed 45 tankers on a blacklist, claiming they did not comply with the rules it intends to impose on shipping in Hormuz.
Attacks using missiles, drones, or fast boats on tankers attempting to leave the gulf have repeatedly caused oil price increases over the six months of the conflict.
Meanwhile, Tehran's allies, the Houthis, have restricted shipping in the Red Sea, threatening a blockade of all Saudi trade that brings crude oil to Asia via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait past the group's Yemeni outpost. Although the initial attacks only stopped part of the vessels, more than half were still passing in mid-August, and the situation remains difficult for freight carriers as Chinese shipping companies are now rerouting their journeys around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, according to industry sources.
Further attacks, such as the one targeting a vessel near the main Saudi oil terminal in Yanbu on Monday, or the drone strike near the Suez Canal in early August, could heighten concerns in the oil market and drive up crude oil prices.
Are Gulf States Still Under Threat of Iranian Attacks?
Iran has threatened to retaliate against neighbors who participate in US efforts to strangle the country's economy with a 'tremor.' During the conflict, it has repeatedly struck Gulf states and Jordan, mainly focusing on American bases, but also hitting energy infrastructure and other targets.
Any activated attacks targeting major oil or gas pipelines could further push energy prices to a point that would inflict political damage on the Trump administration and might be harder to rectify than attacks on shipping.
Attacks on power plants and desalination facilities in the hot, arid region also pose a serious risk to pro-US Gulf monarchies, which function as significant financial centers of the global economy.
Can Iran Directly Attack Western Countries?
Although Western countries are outside the range of Iran's main munitions, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has historically shown a willingness to find alternative ways to attack.
On Monday, the UK reported that Iran-linked hackers disabled a small power plant, while US officials stated that Tehran was likely behind cyberattacks on water treatment facilities in Minnesota. Iran did not comment on these accusations. Western security services have also accused Iran of recruiting local residents to organize attacks or assassination attempts in the West, which Iran denied.
