El Niño could potentially result in losses for African economies amounting to up to $20 billion. However, according to Zoe Carl-Waitaki from BCG Kenya, technology alone is insufficient to save crops; true resilience requires reliable data, infrastructure, and strong partnerships to respond promptly to early warnings for farmers.
As El Niño warnings intensify, governments, agribusinesses, and farmers across Africa are bracing for potential disruptions. The World Meteorological Organization forecasts changes in rainfall patterns and rising temperatures in many parts of the continent, increasing the risk of drought in South Africa.
For economies already grappling with food security issues and climate pressure, the potential costs are substantial. The African Development Bank estimates that intensified El Niño could damage the economy of affected African countries by between $10 and $20 billion, driven by impacts on agriculture, food security, infrastructure, and public finances.
Climate shocks are not new to African agriculture. Their frequency, intensity, and economic impact are changing—from farmer incomes and export revenues to food prices and government budgets. These shocks rapidly propagate through food systems. What begins as a deficit in rainfall in a growing region can ultimately affect processing, transportation, trade flows, and consumer prices. The earlier risks are identified, the broader the spectrum of possible responses becomes.
This raises a more practical question: who possesses the information needed to take action before climate risks turn into business disruptions?
For decades, competitive advantage in agriculture often depended on privileged access to information, whether about weather conditions, crop status, supply constraints, or demand shifts. In a recent report titled 'Agricultural Analytics: How AI is Transforming the Global Food System,' BCG asserts that artificial intelligence is beginning to democratize the informational advantage that has historically underpinned decisions across the entire agricultural value chain—from planting and resource management to trade, logistics, and retail.
Assumptions that long underpinned agricultural planning are becoming less reliable. According to the report, the global food system is simultaneously facing three major challenges: climate instability, geopolitical restructuring, and tightening regulatory requirements. Agricultural analytics acts as a fourth force, changing the approach to decision-making within this system.
Across Africa, agriculture remains a major employer and contributes significantly to the economy. In Sub-Saharan Africa, this sector accounts for about 15% of GDP and remains the primary source of income for millions of households. Consequently, when climate shocks occur, their consequences are felt far beyond the agricultural sector itself.
Forecasting serves as a clear example. Today, weather models, satellite imagery, and remote sensing technologies can provide a much fuller picture of emerging risks than was previously possible. The next step is ensuring that these insights reach the decision-makers throughout the food system—from farmers and traders to financiers and policymakers.
A maize farmer in Kenya, a horticultural exporter in Ethiopia, or a grain trader in South Africa does not need another dashboard. They need greater certainty about what developing El Niño means for rainfall, yields, resource needs, and market demand in the coming months. The value lies not so much in the technology itself, but in the ability to act sooner and with greater certainty.
This need is particularly acute given the persistent gap between innovation and its adoption in African agriculture. As highlighted in the BCG report 'Scaling Strategy,' solutions often show effect in pilot projects but struggle to reach a systemic level due to fragmented ecosystems, limited funding, and infrastructural constraints. Better analytics can help reduce uncertainty for both producers and investors, improving conditions for growth and adoption.
Improved forecasting can support planting decisions and crop management. Greater transparency in supply chains helps businesses anticipate bottlenecks before they become failures. Better data access can expand opportunities for financing and insurance, especially for smallholder producers who have historically struggled with creditworthiness. More precise analytics can also help direct investments toward areas with the greatest long-term potential.
Ultimately, resilience depends on how quickly and effectively information can be converted into action.
However, technology is only one part of the story. Too much discussion about innovation focuses on the tools themselves, ignoring the conditions necessary for those tools to create value. Experience gained in Africa has repeatedly shown that successful pilot projects do not automatically lead to systemic impact.
This was a key finding in the 'Scaling Strategy' report, where BCG research showed that long-term impact depends on more than just innovation. It requires supporting infrastructure, institutional capacity, coordinated ecosystems, sustainable financing models, and strong partnerships between governmental, private, and development actors.
The same lesson applies to agricultural analytics. Without reliable data, even the most sophisticated models will generate limited utility. Without digital infrastructure, access will remain uneven. Without investment in skills, organizations will struggle to integrate new capabilities into daily decision-making. And without collaboration within the food system, implementation risks remaining fragmented.
For Africa, the reward is not the technology itself, but an integrated food system that enables farmers, businesses, and policymakers to make more informed decisions in an increasingly unpredictable environment. History shows that major agricultural breakthroughs rarely happen due to a single breakthrough. They emerge when scientific innovation, infrastructure investment, and human capital mutually reinforce each other.
As another El Niño strengthens, the conversation must focus not only on weather forecasting. It must address what governments, businesses, and farmers do with that information. In an increasingly volatile operating environment, the ability to foresee risks and act proactively can become one of Africa's most crucial competitive advantages.