August 22, 05:48CGTN

British agency predicts record El Niño that could make 2027 the hottest year in the world

The UK's National Meteorological Agency has predicted that the current El Niño weather pattern will be the strongest in over a century and could potentially lead to 2027 being the hottest year globally.

The El Niño phenomenon occurs when rising sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean cause changes worldwide in winds, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation levels, leading to an overall increase in global temperature.

Adam Skyfe, head of long-term forecasting at the meteorological agency, told the BBC that the strongest El Niño in over a hundred years is expected, with a peak exceeding 3 degrees Celsius, which has not been observed in modern climate records.

This means that waters in the Pacific Ocean could warm by more than 3 degrees Celsius above normal in the coming months. Although El Niño is part of a natural cycle, scientists agree that climate change is intensifying its impact. The event occurs when water temperature rises by at least 0.5 degrees Celsius above the baseline.

The Met Office noted that the record El Niño will 'add stress to climate change' following a summer of heatwaves across Europe.

According to the Climate Brink panel, based on data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, temperatures in the Pacific region currently exceed the 30-year average by approximately 2.6 degrees Celsius. This same panel aggregates forecasts suggesting that El Niño could reach an anomaly of 3.9 degrees Celsius in November, significantly higher than the 3-degree Celsius anomaly recorded in 2015.

British scientist Skyfe emphasized that this is an unprecedented event. The physicist specializing in climate modeling stated that if the forecast proves accurate, 2026 'will significantly surpass our recent experience of El Niño and its global impact on the climate.' He added that he has never seen such an intense El Niño signal in forecasts, noting that even a rise of 2 degrees Celsius is considered a 'very big event.'

Typically, El Niño leads to drier conditions in Southeast Asia, Australia, South Africa, and Northern Brazil, as well as wetter conditions in the Horn of Africa, the southern US, Peru, and Ecuador. Skyfe noted that this year's abnormal warming will have a particularly strong impact on the Tropics, with a 'really severe drought predicted in places like South America and the Western Pacific Ocean.'

The Met Office reported that El Niño is already causing below-average rainfall in India. Furthermore, Skyfe warned that the weather phenomenon is expected to trigger 'increased rainfall and storm activity in autumn here in the UK, around November,' stressing that this refers to 'truly long-term, sustained conditions,' rather than short-term weather forecasts.

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olhardigital.com.brAugust 21, 20:55

El Niño phenomenon could raise the global average temperature in 2027 to record levels

The El Niño predicted for 2026 is heading towards being the most intense ever recorded, showing potential to trigger extreme weather events in various parts of the globe and possibly make 2027 the hottest year in history. Experts consulted by AFP indicate that this phenomenon should reach an unprecedented magnitude in over a hundred years.

El Niño is a natural event linked to the warming of tropical Pacific waters and is part of the cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It manifests when the trade winds, which normally blow from east to west, temporarily weaken. Consequently, warm water accumulated in the western part of the Pacific migrates eastward and rises to the surface.

When sea surface temperatures remain above average for several months, this favors the formation of more storms and clouds in the region, generating changes that affect different parts of the world's atmosphere. Michelle L’Heureux, leader of the ENSO team at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center, warned AFP that stronger events imply a higher probability of these impacts, although she emphasized that no effect is guaranteed.

This phenomenon has the potential to cause hotter and drier conditions in some regions and colder and wetter conditions in others. Some impacts are already notable, such as in Indonesia, where a prolonged and severe drought season contributed to forest fires affecting hundreds of thousands of hectares.

Calculations made by climate scientists Zeke Hausfather and Andrew Dessler suggest that El Niño could temporarily add 0.3 °C to the long-term global warming trend. Thus, the global average temperature in 2027 could reach 1.76 °C above pre-industrial levels. Dessler, a professor at Texas A&M University, told AFP that this increase would concentrate in a single year the warming that, without the temporary influence of El Niño, would only be expected in 2037, classifying it as a 'preview of the future.'

Mike McPhaden, senior scientist at NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, presented a similar estimate, stating to AFP that it would not be unlikely for 2027 to reach 1.7 °C above pre-industrial levels if model projections are confirmed.

Details on intensity measurement

There is no universally accepted method to measure the intensity of El Niño episodes. In February, NOAA implemented the Niño Relative Ocean Index (RONI). This indicator compares the warming of the Niño 3.4 area with the warming of the entire tropical ocean band, aiming to represent more accurately the ocean-atmosphere interaction system responsible for ENSO effects.

Although the values obtained by RONI are lower, the forecast classification for the phenomenon remains unchanged. According to NOAA, there is a 69% chance that the 2026 El Niño will be the strongest in its historical series, which began in 1950.

Impact of climate change on El Niño events

Scientists agree that climate change intensifies the effects caused by El Niño. A warmer atmosphere due to greenhouse gases can retain more moisture, which can lead to more intense rainfall associated with the phenomenon. Simultaneously, the soil tends to dry out more, worsening drought conditions in areas where El Niño already promotes decreased precipitation.

There is still less consensus on whether climate change itself is inducing more potent El Niños. However, evidence in this direction is emerging. McPhaden stated that 'climate change may be amplifying the El Niño cycle itself.'

According to the scientist, the warming of tropical seas causes the winds responsible for the phenomenon to react more vigorously to oceanic conditions. This restricts the feedback mechanism between the atmosphere and the ocean, allowing episodes to develop more rapidly. McPhaden based this statement on paleoclimate data, such as coral skeletons, as well as instrumental measurements from the 19th century and climate models, which indicate that the amplitude of El Niño episodes may have grown by about 10% over the last century.

noticiasaominuto.comAugust 14, 06:08

NOAA predicts El Niño could be the strongest ever recorded, with high probability of intensification

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center indicated the possibility that the El Niño phenomenon, expected between October and December, could become a historic event, surpassing the intensity of records prior to 1950, when data began, with temperatures reaching 2.5 degrees Celsius above average.

The institution added in a report released on Thursday that El Niño is intensifying, showing over a 90% chance of being a very strong event during the autumn and winter of 2026-27 in the Northern Hemisphere.

The agency raised its projections after noting that El Niño, which began in June, intensified in the previous month, manifesting temperature anomalies exceeding 2 degrees Celsius on the surface of the equatorial Pacific and reaching 10 degrees below the surface in other areas.

According to the parameters established by the meteorological service, the occurrence of El Niño is formalized when temperatures in the equatorial Pacific remain 0.5 degrees Celsius above average for a period of several consecutive months. This climate phenomenon involves the presence of warmer-than-usual waters in the Pacific, along with stronger westerly winds.

For countries located in the area directly impacted by El Niño, such as the United States, NOAA observed that this implies conditions of greater dryness and a warmer than normal winter, although it may also cause rain and potential flooding in the southern region of the country.

Winds associated with El Niño also increase the probability of tropical cyclones and typhoons in the Pacific, while decreasing the chance of hurricanes in the Atlantic. The strengthening of El Niño prompted NOAA to adjust its forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season on August 6, estimating a maximum of 13 storms, which is below the historical average, but predicting up to 22 cyclones and typhoons in the Eastern Pacific, above average.

Additionally, the climate agency confirmed that July was the hottest month ever recorded in the United States, with an average temperature close to 25 degrees Celsius, representing 1.8 degrees above the twentieth-century average.

In parallel, the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) announced on Monday that the global sea surface temperature during July was the highest ever documented. The average of the extra-polar ocean temperatures, excluding ice caps and extreme polar regions, reached 20.96 °C last month, surpassing the previous record of 20.89 °C recorded in 2023.

One of the factors pointed to for this thermal increase was the exceptional heat over a vast expanse of the tropical Pacific, an area where the conditions for the weather phenomenon known as El Niño are found, which, according to projections, should become even more intense in the coming months.