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Forecast predicts decrease in rainfall across most regions of the country after September 5-10
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Forecast predicts decrease in rainfall across most regions of the country after September 5-10

An important weather forecast for the next four weeks has been released. According to weather models, rain is expected to continue in Eastern and North-Eastern India over the next two weeks. However, it is anticipated that after September 5-10, the amount of precipitation in a significant part of the country will decrease, meaning the rest of September may see light rain in many areas.

Although this is a long-term forecast and it may change, current models indicate that the monsoon may weaken across most of the country starting from the second week of September, leading to a reduction in rainy days in several places.

Rainfall may continue in Eastern and North-Eastern India for the next two weeks. These regions are expected to receive more precipitation compared to the rest of the country, with heavy rains possible in some locations. Nevertheless, this does not guarantee daily heavy rains in all these regions; the situation can change depending on the formation of various weather systems.

Long-term weather models point to signs of changes around September 5-10. After this date, a decrease in precipitation is expected in large parts of the country, as well as a possible increase in the difference in rainfall between various states and a weakening of monsoon activity. Furthermore, a decrease in precipitation does not mean a complete cessation of rain everywhere; local weather systems may cause precipitation in specific areas, so it cannot be considered a signal of simultaneous cessation of rain across the entire country.

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) previously predicted that the monsoon this season would be weaker than normal. According to the meteorological service's estimates, the total rainfall in the country from June to September 2026 could be around 90% of the long-term average. The average rainfall from June to September in the country between 1971 and 2020 was about 87 centimeters, and less rainfall is expected this year. According to the IMD, the probability of the country having less rainfall than normal was 84%, while normal rainfall was forecasted for North-Eastern India.

The weather picture will become clearer in the coming weeks, and long-term weather models may undergo changes. Therefore, it is not yet possible to state that there will be little rain everywhere in September. Currently, the forecast is that rain may continue in Eastern and North-Eastern India for the next two weeks, followed by an expected decrease in precipitation across most of the country around September 5-10.

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Meteorologists warn of heavy rainfall: Monsoon active in several Indian states, including Delhi-NCR
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Meteorologists warn of heavy rainfall: Monsoon active in several Indian states, including Delhi-NCR

The monsoon is fully active in various parts of the country. The Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts moderate to heavy rains in several states of North, Central, East, Northeast, West, and South India on Tuesday. Very heavy rains, thunderstorms, squalls, and strong winds are expected in some areas.

According to the IMD, the monsoon trough line has shifted south of its usual position and intensified, leading to the possibility of heavy rainfall in many regions of the country. The southward shift of the trough line strengthens the monsoon winds, increasing precipitation in coastal and central areas.

Furthermore, a low-pressure area formed in central Madhya Pradesh and surrounding areas is affecting the weather in Central India. There is also a possibility that cyclonic circulation over the Bay of Bengal may transform into a low-pressure area around August 12, which will lead to continued rains in eastern and central India in the coming days.

According to the meteorological department, rain is possible in several places in Delhi-NCR, Haryana, Chandigarh, and Punjab on August 11, with heavy rain forecasted in some areas. Sudden heavy downpours with thunderstorms are expected during the day. Cloudiness will persist in Delhi-NCR in the coming days, with numerous periods of light and moderate rain possible. Continuous periodic rain is also expected in the capital in the coming days, although despite the precipitation, temperature and humidity may remain high.

According to the Lucknow center, the monsoon will be active in many parts of Uttar Pradesh on August 11. There is a high probability of thunderstorms in some places in western Uttar Pradesh, and thunderstorms are also possible in eastern Uttar Pradesh. However, the impact of the rainfall in the state will be uneven. The Meteorological Department noted that the districts of western Uttar Pradesh and Bundelkhand are more sensitive to heavy rains, while other parts are expected to receive moderate to normal rainfall.

Extensive rains are expected in Uttarakhand on August 11, with heavy precipitation in some places. There is a threat of heavy or very heavy rains in areas such as Dehradun, Bageshwar, Nainital, and Haridwar. Rains in the state are forecast to continue until August 16. In Himachal Pradesh, heavy or very heavy rain is possible in some places on August 11. The weather in the state is expected to be humid until August 15, and after August 12, the activity of heavy rains may increase. Monsoon phenomena may also persist in Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, and surrounding areas for the next few days.

The Meteorological Department has called for special vigilance regarding the eastern districts of Rajasthan. A warning for heavy, very heavy, and extremely heavy rainfall has been issued for various districts in eastern Rajasthan on August 11. In some parts of the state, rains may continue until August 13. Meanwhile, weather conditions are expected to improve in western Rajasthan from August 14.

The low-pressure area over northern Madhya Pradesh is the main cause of rains in Central India. Rain, including heavy rain, is expected in several places in western Madhya Pradesh on August 11. Prolonged periods of heavy rainfall are also expected in eastern Madhya Pradesh. There is a risk of thunderstorms and lightning with heavy downpours in Chhattisgarh. After August 12, the activity of heavy rains in the state may intensify. The Meteorological Department has issued warnings for heavy, very heavy, and severe rains in several areas of Central India.

In Eastern India, rains may persist in Odisha, West Bengal, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, and Sikkim. Heavy rains with thunderstorms and strong winds are expected in West Bengal and Odisha. Heavy rains are forecasted in Odisha on August 11, and heavy or very heavy precipitation is possible in some areas on August 12. The period from August 12 to 15 may bring extremely heavy downpours in some places. There is a possibility of thunderstorms and lightning in Bihar and Jharkhand. The activity of heavy rains in Jharkhand may increase from August 13.

In Northeast India, rains may continue in Assam, Meghalaya, and Arunachal Pradesh. Heavy rains are forecasted in some places in these states. Thunderstorms are also possible in Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura. Further expansion of rainfall activity across the entire Northeast region is expected from August 12.

Widespread rain is expected in Konkan and Goa in West India. Heavy rains are possible in some places in Gujarat on August 11. The period of heavy rains in central Maharashtra may extend until August 12, and periodic rain is expected in several districts of Maharashtra for the next week.

In South India, the monsoon is active in the coastal states of Karnataka and Kerala.

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