India's crude oil imports from Venezuela significantly rose in August, making the South American producer the fourth largest supplier to India, according to vessel tracking data from Kpler.
According to vessel tracking data, India is expanding its sources of crude oil supply into Latin America. This is happening against the backdrop of disruptions related to the conflict in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, forcing the world's third-largest oil consumer to diversify its reserves.
In August, supplies from Venezuela reached approximately 444,000 barrels per day, surpassing supplies from Iraq (118,000 barrels per day) and the US (153,000 barrels per day). Venezuela's position in India's supply structure grew rapidly after resuming imports in April.
Indian refineries have increased purchases of crude oil from Venezuela, Brazil, and Africa following supply disruptions from West Asia, while continuing to actively use Russian oil.
Russia remains the main supplier, as imports reached nearly 2 million barrels per day in August. In June-July, Russian crude oil imports amounted to about 2.6 million barrels per day, covering more than half of India's raw material needs and serving as a hedge against interruptions in traditional supply routes from West Asia.
According to Sumit Ritoli, Senior Modeling Manager at Kpler, India's strategy includes several directions: increasing domestic production where possible, diversifying foreign suppliers of raw materials and transport routes, building strategic and commercial reserves, and accelerating the transition to alternatives such as gas, biofuels, electric vehicles, and renewable energy.
This shift highlights a broader strategy emerging from the disruptions: India is not abandoning oil in the near term but is striving to make the necessary crude oil more reliable and resilient by expanding its supplier base and transportation options.
Ritoli noted that replacing all crude oil from West Asia is neither practical nor necessarily economically advantageous, as Persian Gulf producers remain geographically closer to India, reducing sailing time and transport costs compared to sources like Venezuela, the US, West Africa, and Latin America.
Despite this, Indian refiners have shown significant flexibility in switching between crude from West Asia, Russia, and the Atlantic basin. Overall, crude oil imports remained at around 5 million barrels per day in recent months, allowing refining enterprises to maintain relative stability despite the disruptions.
He added that longer sea routes from Venezuela, the US, West Africa, or Latin America could increase freight and insurance costs, and geopolitical turmoil could raise India's oil import bill, even if refiners secure sufficient physical feedstock.
Ritoli warned that while diversification helps ensure supply security, it cannot completely insulate India from geopolitics. India will still need to import large volumes of raw materials, so any major disruption will ultimately lead to higher prices for oil, freight, and import costs.
Indian refiners sharply increased purchases of Russian oil due to flow disruptions in the Persian Gulf caused by the conflict in Iran. In July, Russian crude oil accounted for over half of India's imports, while supplies from West Asia dropped to about 30 percent of the country's import basket between April and July, down from 43 percent the previous year. Meanwhile, supplies from Latin America, including Venezuela and Brazil, rose to 12.7 percent during the same period from 3.5 percent.
India is promoting the use of natural gas, LNG, electric vehicles, biofuels, and renewable energy. Recent geopolitical turmoil has intensified the urgency of these efforts, although alternatives are still far from substantially replacing oil demand.
India remains one of the largest drivers of global oil demand growth, driven by rising vehicle ownership, mobility, aviation activity, industrial activity, and petrochemical consumption.
Even the rapid adoption of electric vehicles will take time to impact the existing vehicle fleet, while growth in transport and industrial sectors will require liquid fuels.
Ritoli noted that while domestic production itself has limited potential for significantly reducing import dependence, every additional barrel produced domestically provides some protection against geopolitical shocks, international price fluctuations, and high freight costs.
This stimulates a parallel drive to increase domestic oil and gas production, encouraging exploration and bringing discoveries into production. Although local production cannot eliminate India's import dependency, every extra barrel produced locally reduces the volume exposed to international market volatility.
Furthermore, crude oil is not the only hydrocarbon to which India is most sensitive regarding supply disruptions from West Asia. The country's dependence on West Asia is significantly higher concerning Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), and there is also considerable vulnerability regarding LNG, as alternative supplies and logistical flexibility are limited.
This means that energy security increasingly requires diversification beyond crude oil—including gas supply, storage infrastructure, and strategic reserves.
Disruptions will also likely prompt a closer examination of India's strategic petroleum reserve strategy. As oil demand and import reliance grow, India needs to assess whether its existing strategic reserves provide an adequate buffer against prolonged shortages. Diversifying suppliers can mitigate the impact of losing any single source, but it cannot entirely shield the country from a global price shock.
Thus, the immediate question is not whether India can stop importing oil, but how effectively it can manage the risks associated with its imports.
Ritoli concluded that current efforts should be viewed as a multifaceted energy security strategy, rather than simply an oil departure: increasing domestic oil and gas production, diversifying imported raw materials, strengthening supplies, investing in creating buffers of strategic reserves (SPR) for both crude oil and gas, and gradually increasing the role of electric vehicles, gas, biofuels, and renewable energy.