Drivers in South Africa will face a significant increase in fuel prices in September as international oil prices remain high due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
According to the latest information from the Central Energy Fund, a price hike of approximately 80 cents for 93 Unleaded and 90 cents for 95 Unleaded is expected. However, if sharper recovery indicators observed in recent days persist until the end of the month, the increase could range from 1.00 to 1.10 South African Rand.
The forecast for diesel fuel prices looks much more serious: CEF data indicates a potential price increase of around 2.85 Rand per 500ppm and 3.05 Rand per 50ppm, and these figures could rise if current trends continue.
There is also an expected increase in kerosene prices by approximately 2.23 Rand.
The last few months have been unstable and difficult for drivers: the price of 95 Unleaded rose from 19.47 Rand in March to 24.71 Rand in August, peaking at 27.19 Rand in June. The wholesale price of diesel fuel increased from 17.70 Rand in March to 25.30 Rand in August, with a peak of 30.30 Rand in May.
In early August, both grades of gasoline dropped by 52 cents per liter, while diesel fuel increased by an amount ranging from 1.23 Rand (50ppm) to 1.38 Rand (500ppm).
International oil markets have shown extreme volatility since the start of the war between the US and Israel involving Iran at the end of February, when the critical passage through the Strait of Hormuz was largely closed to shipping. Although markets appear to have stabilized, with Brent crude prices trading mostly around the $90 per barrel mark in August (down from a high of about $126 at the beginning of the year), prices remain significantly above the pre-war level of around $70.
Ole Hvalbye, a commodities analyst at SEB, recently told Reuters: 'The return to normal flow through the Strait of Hormuz now has no immediate prospects in the near future.' Nevertheless, analysts predict a gradual easing of global oil prices; JP Morgan forecasts an average of around $86 for Brent in the third quarter of this year, dropping to $80 in the fourth quarter, and $78 in 2027.