Over the course of one week, onion prices increased by 21%, while the volume of banana supplies was 36% lower than the previous year. This data is part of the weekly fresh produce market review by GroundRules, prepared by Agricultural Market Trends (AMT) and presented by agricultural economist Konsa Moraba.
Food For Mzansi is proud to be the official media partner of GroundRules, providing audiences across the country access to verified agricultural market information and weekly analysis from AMT.
In the latest update, Moraba details changes in South Africa's fresh produce markets, using data from the AMT database to understand the factors behind prices rather than merely stating them.
This period is particularly important as the market enters the second half of August, when consumer demand may begin to weaken. Simultaneously, last week's weather conditions slowed production in several regions, which could potentially mitigate the impact of weaker demand on some markets.
The average price for potatoes remained relatively unchanged last week, at R64.79 per 10kg bag. The average price for Sifras was R69, while Class 1 Large Mondial reached R78, and Class 1 Medium Mondial strengthened to R64.
Production in western Free State, Christian, and Douglas districts is expected to continue for another two to three weeks, while the first harvests from Limpopo begin to enter the market. Supply from Limpopo remains low, supporting prices. However, weakening consumer demand could put pressure on prices by the end of the week.
Moraba forecasts a slight decrease in potato prices in the short term, although producers are currently selling their harvest efficiently without oversaturating the market.
Tomatoes remain one of the markets Moraba closely monitors. Tomato prices fell another 7% last week to R6.74/kg, with sales volumes decreasing by 19% compared to the previous week. This reduction in volume is largely due to a shorter trading week, not fundamental changes in supply.
If tomato prices continue to follow a similar trend to last year, they may remain under pressure for at least another month, especially if temperatures rise as predicted.
Carrots face a similar situation. Prices dropped by 7% to R4.96/kg; higher supply and weak consumer demand are expected to keep price pressure throughout August.
Sweet peppers present a more encouraging picture. The average price rose by 1% to R14.91/kg, supported by a 9% increase in green peppers to R13.16/kg. Prices for yellow and red peppers decreased.
Moraba expects supply to begin contracting, which could potentially support prices, and has a positive short-term outlook for sweet peppers.
Onions showed the most significant price change in the week. The average price jumped by 21% to R99.46 per 10kg; the average price for Class 1 Medium Brown onions was R114, White Class 1 Medium was R121, and Red Class 1 Medium reached R220.
However, Moraba cautions against interpreting this rise as the start of a sustained rally. A larger volume of product may enter the market over the next three weeks. If rising temperatures accelerate production, additional supply could once again put pressure on prices.
Therefore, despite the sharp rise last week, the short-term forecast for onions remains negative.
The fruit market presents a completely different picture. Banana prices rose by 8% last week to R11.76/kg, equivalent to approximately R212 per 18kg box. However, the supply volume is a more important indicator. Banana supply is currently 36% lower than at the same time last year, with significantly fewer bananas appearing on the market than in the past two years.
This reduction in supply provides significant support to prices, which are now 42% higher compared to last year. If the trend of declining supply continues, Moraba expects banana prices to continue rising towards the end of the year.
Apple prices rose by 2% to R9.50/kg, and pear prices by 1% to R9.80/kg. Orange prices also improved, increasing by 13% to R2.76/kg. Nevertheless, prices remain 45% lower than a year ago, while volumes are still 64% higher compared to last year.
Signs indicate that the worst supply pressure on oranges for the season may be behind, potentially paving the way for price improvement.
Avocados increased by another 4%, reaching an average of R18.09/kg, with Fuerte varieties costing about R25/kg and Hass around R14/kg. Table grapes sharply increased by 23% to R87.44/kg as the local season ends and market dependence on imports grows.
For Moraba, the key takeaway from current market changes is that the price itself does not reveal the whole picture. The 21% rise in onion prices might look very bullish until potential additional supply is factored in. Similarly, the fact that bananas are 42% more expensive than last year takes on a different meaning when supply is 36% lower.
GroundRules' approach, therefore, is to look beyond the latest prices and study the supply, demand, and production factors that may shape the market in the coming weeks and months.