A sharp increase in gasoline and diesel fuel prices is expected in September as hopes for peace in the Middle East remain uncertain.
According to the latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), substantial increases in diesel fuel prices are forecast: around R2.73 per 500ppm and R2.90 per 50ppm. Forecasts for gasoline prices are less dramatic but still significant; CEF data indicates a shortfall of 66 cents for 93 Unleaded and 77 cents for 95 Unleaded. Nevertheless, if current trends persist, these amounts could rise to approximately 80–90 cents by the end of the month.
There is also an expected increase in the price of kerosene within R2.14. This rise follows several unstable months, during which the price of 95 Unleaded increased from R19.47 in March to R24.71 in August, peaking at R27.19 in June. The wholesale price of diesel fuel rose from R17.70 in March to R25.30 in August, with its peak recorded in May at R30.30.
In early August, both grades of gasoline dropped by 52 cents per liter, while diesel fuel increased by an amount ranging from R1.23 (50ppm) to R1.38 (500ppm).
Volatility in global oil markets
International oil markets have shown extreme instability since the start of the war between the US and Israel involving Iran in late February. The critical passage of oil through the Strait of Hormuz is largely closed to shipping. Although markets appear to have stabilized, trading predominantly around $90 per barrel of Brent in August, which is below peak values of about $126 at the beginning of the year, prices remain significantly above the pre-war level of around $70.
Ole Hvalbye, a commodities analyst at SEB, recently told Reuters that 'the return to normal flow through the Strait of Hormuz is now suddenly devoid of any short-term hope.' However, analysts note a gradual softening of global oil prices. JP Morgan forecasts an average Brent level of around $86 in the third quarter of this year, which will decrease to $80 in the fourth quarter and reach $78 in 2027.