The implementation of artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to add up to R$ 986.7 billion to Brazil's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) between 2027 and 2030, according to a study conducted by Reglab at the request of OpenAI, the developer of ChatGPT.
This survey assessed the potential impact of the technology on twelve crucial segments of the national economy. The projected amount, already converted to current values and adjusted by the Selic rate of 13% per year, is equivalent to about 7.6% of the GDP forecast for 2026, which is R$ 12.9 trillion.
According to the researchers, AI can generate an accumulated impact equivalent to 2.77% of the GDP over these four years, promoting an average annual growth of 0.69 percentage points in the technology-related economy.
The study's authors emphasize that these benefits will not materialize immediately. The realization of this potential is directly linked to how quickly companies, workers, and government agencies incorporate new technological tools.
Among the sectors examined, manufacturing industries showed the greatest potential for gain, with an estimate of R$ 264.2 billion between 2027 and 2030 for activities that convert raw materials and inputs into new products. This was followed by service activities, with R$ 165.4 billion, and the commerce sector, which reached R$ 131.2 billion.
The study segments the effects of AI into two main avenues: the increase in employee productivity and the increase in the efficiency of machinery, equipment, and production structures. In the modeled scenario, 65% of the total impact comes from increased labor productivity, while the remaining 35% is attributed to greater capital efficiency.
This proportion of impacts varies considerably depending on the nature of the economic activity. For example, in agriculture, 92% of the effect would be absorbed by capital. This sector could accumulate R$ 48.2 billion in gains, driven mainly by the integration of AI into infrastructure, machines, and productive equipment.
In contrast, in areas with a high concentration of cognitive tasks, the effect on worker productivity would be most prominent. In finance, for example, 87% of the estimated impact would be linked to labor, being the highest percentage among the twelve analyzed sectors. Banks, insurance companies, and investment managers could apply AI in functions such as claims classification, risk assessment, customer service, and document review.
In the information and communication segment, which includes telecommunications companies, data centers, and software developers, the projected impact reaches R$ 49.3 billion, with 97% of the effect related to the labor factor. One cited example is the administrative assistant, whose repetitive and codifiable tasks, such as data entry, schedule reconciliation, and document classification, would be most prone to automation.
On the other hand, a software engineer could use AI to streamline processes, such as documentation generation and code correction, while maintaining activities that require judgment, coordination, and project definition under professional responsibility.
Despite the quantified potential, the research points out that the adoption of AI in Brazil tends to be more gradual compared to more developed economies. Factors such as disparities among companies, the high cost of credit, deficiencies in professional qualification, and infrastructure restrictions were highlighted.
The projections indicate that, by 2030, 66.6% of the potential gains linked to increased labor productivity and 62.4% of the gains associated with more efficient structures and equipment would have been achieved.
It is important to note that the R$ 986.7 billion represents an estimated potential, not a guarantee of growth; its realization depends on the speed of technology adoption and the country's regulatory, educational, and institutional conditions.
The study suggests several actions for Brazil to convert this potential into real economic benefits. Among them are the retraining of professionals in roles susceptible to replacement, the expansion of rural digital infrastructure, and the creation of incentives for less productive companies to implement AI.
The authors also advocate for the establishment of a stable regulatory framework, governance policies, the use of open data, and the application of technology in public services. It is concluded that the realization of these gains depends not only on technological advancement but also on the ability to establish a favorable institutional, regulatory, and educational environment for its broad and productive dissemination.
Brazil's gross debt, which includes the debts of federal, municipal, state governments, and social security, reached the amount of 10.8 trillion reais, corresponding to approximately 1.84 trillion euros, during the month of June.
This result represents 81.9% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), indicating an increase of 0.9 percentage points compared to May. This level is the highest recorded since April 2021, when the gross debt was 82.6% of GDP.
In a period of three and a half years under the management of the current Brazilian president, Lula da Silva, the proportion of public debt to GDP has grown by 10.2 percentage points, according to data from the Independent Fiscal Institute (IFI) of the Brazilian Federal Senate.
The IFI estimates that, maintaining the current pace, this ratio could reach 115% of GDP within ten years.
Additionally, the Brazilian Central Bank disclosed that federal state-owned companies accumulated a deficit of 7.8 trillion reais (about 1.33 trillion euros) in the first six months of the year. This is the worst deficit ever documented by this monetary authority since 2002.
It is important to note that the calculations do not include the oil company Petrobras, the electric power company Eletrobras (which was privatized in 2022), and federal public banks.
Only in the month of June did these companies register a total deficit of 1.5 trillion reais, equivalent to 256.4 billion euros.
