According to ECMWF forecasts, monsoon weakening is expected in several states, including Delhi and Haryana, in September

Residents of the United Arab Emirates may begin to notice gradual changes in the weather in the coming weeks as the country exits the most intense phase of summer, but cooler conditions will not arrive suddenly.

The appearance of the star Suhail, expected on August 24th, has long been considered a seasonal marker in the region. Ibrahim Al Jarwan, Chairman of the Emirates Astronomy Society, noted that the days following this star's rising should bring a steady, rather than sharp, drop in temperature.

Al Jarwan emphasized that this is not about cold weather, but rather that people will feel a change in the atmosphere and a softening of conditions. This change should become more noticeable around the time Suhail rises, which will be in about 10 days. Although actual temperatures are likely to start dropping, high humidity may occasionally make conditions uncomfortable.

The UAE has just experienced the peak of the traditional summer heat period, known locally as Ayyam Al Ghais, which usually lasts about six weeks, starting from early July until around August 10th. During this period, the highest temperatures in the UAE peaked, exceeding 51°C on August 5th. Nighttime lows also rose to 35°C.

Humidity will increase as temperatures drop

As temperatures begin to fall, an increase in humidity is expected. Al Jarwan explained that this means residents may still experience a strong feeling of heat even if thermometer readings are lower than in the height of summer.

He clarified that humid summer air contains significantly more moisture than equally humid winter air, making conditions more exhausting. At 40°C and 80% humidity, a cubic meter of air can contain about 50 grams of water, compared to less than 15 grams at 20°C with the same relative humidity.

September and October are typically among the most humid months in the UAE. Increased humidity may also lead to morning fog and dew, with the first signs possible in late August and becoming more frequent in September.

Brief return of heat is possible

Residents should also not rule out short periods of intense heat. Al Jarwan mentioned the traditional concept of Zafarat Al Ghais—heat spikes in late summer that can occur after the peak season ends.

He noted that such episodes do not change the overall seasonal trend but can cause a temporary rise in temperature until conditions stabilize around the autumn equinox on September 23rd. After this evening, it should gradually become more pleasant. Cooler daytime conditions will take longer to arrive, and a more noticeable softening is expected in November, with the overall seasonal cooling trend continuing until mid-December.

Marker of the traditional calendar

Suhail, known internationally as Canopus, does not cause weather changes by itself. Rather, its appearance has served as a reliable marker in the traditional Arabic calendar for generations, coinciding with the gradual transition from peak summer conditions.

Al Jarwan also stressed that traditional references to constellations such as Virgo, Libra, and Scorpius are used as indicators of time and season, not as factors influencing the weather. In local seasonal knowledge, these markers generally correspond to the months of September, October, and November.

At present, the worst summer heat is beginning to recede, but patience will be required. Temperatures may drop slightly in the coming weeks, while humidity, fog, and occasional heat spells remain part of the transition to a cooler season.

On Wednesday, August 12, heavy rains fell in some parts of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) amid an unstable weather forecast, according to the National Center of Meteorology (NCM). The meteorological agency issued orange and yellow warnings for areas prone to precipitation, urging residents to exercise caution during outdoor activities and follow official instructions in case of dangerous weather phenomena.

According to NCM data, the UAE may face additional rainfall over the next week, which could provide relief for residents struggling with high temperatures reaching 50°C. Video footage published by the Storm Centre shows heavy downpour on Nahil Road in Al Ain, while another clip depicts strong winds in Al Ain accompanied by rain.

Under these weather conditions, NCM has established several safety measures for the public. Residents were advised to drive cautiously during rain, stay away from areas susceptible to flash floods, and avoid being in open or elevated places during thunderstorms and lightning. They are also advised to be mindful of downdrafts, which can lead to falling objects and reduced horizontal visibility. It is necessary to adhere to safety measures during convective clouds.

Authorities have reiterated the importance of staying away from dangerous areas. Residents are recommended to avoid valleys, low-lying areas, and flood-prone zones, and not attempt to cross flooded wadis. During unstable weather, people should stay clear of beaches, the sea, and mountainous regions. Walking or allowing children to play in standing water is also prohibited.

During such periods, Abu Dhabi police typically urge drivers to exercise prudence due to rainy weather and to observe variable speed limits indicated on signs and electronic displays. Residents are also strongly urged to monitor weather forecasts through official channels and be prepared to comply with instructions from relevant authorities, refraining from spreading rumors and relying on official NCM reports.

What might surprise most people in the middle of summer was predicted by meteorologists. Ahmed Habib, an NCM meteorologist, explained in a recent interview with Khaleej Times that the ongoing El Niño wave may be the cause of the country's precipitation. El Niño is a natural climate cycle that occurs around the planet every two to seven years and lasts for almost a year. It causes a significant rise in the sea surface temperature near the equator, shifting warm water masses, as well as global wind and rain patterns.

In the UAE, this phenomenon is believed to increase atmospheric humidity, which many may have noticed as increased humidity in recent days, especially at night. Although high humidity contributes to the formation of convective clouds and increases the likelihood of rain, it does not affect the overall temperature, which is likely to remain high due to the extreme heat brought by El Niño to the region.

Besides the UAE, Oman warned its residents about possible flash flooding due to heavy rains over the Hajar Mountains, located on the border with the UAE. The Oman Meteorological Department also predicted hail in the region and issued warnings nationwide. Meanwhile, the Saudi Arabian meteorological center notified residents about thunderstorms and hail in certain areas of the country, anticipating heavy rain, strong winds, and dust lifting.