The National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) projects distinct weather conditions for Brazil over the next two days, Thursday (13th) and Friday (14th). While the North, Northeast, Central-West, and Southeast regions will experience predominant heat with low humidity, the South Region will face strong instability.
The most concerning situation is observed in the South, where the interaction of a trough linked to a low-pressure area favors the formation of storms. There is potential for intense rainfall, hail, wind gusts, and sporadic occurrences of tornadoes, although the exact locations of these events cannot be determined in advance.
Additionally, INMET monitors the possibility of a heatwave in parts of Amazonas, Pará, Central-West, Southeast, and Paraná. However, this condition has not yet been confirmed, depending on maximum temperatures remaining at least 5°C above average for five consecutive days.
On Thursday, heat will dominate much of the country's interior, accompanied by low humidity in various areas. In the Northeast, the interior will have drier weather, while the coastal area will concentrate conditions favorable for rain. States such as Maranhão, Piauí, Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte, Paraíba, Pernambuco, and Bahia have areas under the influence of drier air, with yellow alerts for low humidity in specific sectors, such as the south-central part of Maranhão and large parts of Piauí.
Temperatures remain high in the Northeast: Teresina may reach 37°C (minimum of 20°C), Fortaleza forecasts a variation between 24°C and 31°C, and Recife is expected to register between 22°C and 28°C. Areas on the northern coast of Bahia and southern Sergipe, as well as northern Maranhão, may receive isolated rains.
In the North, cloudiness and rain are more evident in Acre, Amazonas, Roraima, Amapá, and parts of Pará. Precipitation tends to focus on western Acre, west-central and northwestern Amazonas, and Roraima. Tocantins and south-central Pará will maintain few clouds. Palmas and Porto Velho may reach 37°C, and Manaus may reach 36°C. There is a yellow alert for low humidity in Rondônia, southeast Amazonas, south-central Pará, and Tocantins.
The Central-West will have few clouds, with a chance of isolated rain in northwest Mato Grosso (including Colniza, Aripuanã, and Cotriguaçu) and in southern Mato Grosso do Sul (Mundo Novo region). The heat will be intense, with highs close to 40°C in the interior. Brasília may record a minimum of 18°C, and Goiânia may reach 37°C. The entire region is under a yellow alert for low humidity.
In the Southeast, Thursday will begin with a possibility of fog on the northern coast of São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and Espírito Santo. Later, the weather will stabilize across most of the region, although southern São Paulo, near the border with Paraná, may present isolated rain and thunderstorms. Belo Horizonte will have a minimum of 14°C and a maximum of 32°C. The yellow alert for low humidity covers north-central São Paulo and large parts of Minas Gerais, except for the eastern strip of Minas Gerais.
The greatest concentration of instability occurs in the South Region. Rain and thunderstorms will affect areas of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, and Paraná, with conditions worsening during the afternoon. Santa Catarina has an orange alert in the south-central, west, and east, covering cities such as São Miguel do Oeste, Chapecó, Campos Novos, Caçador, Lages, Brusque, Florianópolis, São Joaquim, and Criciúma. In Rio Grande do Sul, the alert reaches locations such as Santo Ângelo, Passo Fundo, Erechim, Caxias do Sul, Santa Cruz do Sul, and Porto Alegre.
There is also a yellow alert for storms in Paraná, encompassing Cascavel, Foz do Iguaçu, Guarapuava, Ponta Grossa, and Curitiba, as well as northeastern Santa Catarina (with Blumenau and Joinville) and central areas of Rio Grande do Sul (such as Santa Maria, Camaquã, and Mostardas).
Despite the instability, the South maintains milder temperatures, especially during the early morning. Curitiba and Porto Alegre may record lows of 13°C. The Paraná capital may reach 22°C, while Porto Alegre is expected to be among the coldest capitals, with a maximum of up to 18°C.
On Friday, instabilities shift towards Paraná and persist over Santa Catarina and northern Rio Grande do Sul. A vast area of Paraná, the entire territory of Santa Catarina, and north-central Rio Grande do Sul may experience rain and thunderstorms. The environment remains conducive to hail and wind gusts, without ruling out isolated tornado occurrences.
The yellow alert for storms remains largely in Paraná, including Cascavel, Foz do Iguaçu, Guarapuava, Ponta Grossa, Campo Mourão, and Curitiba. Santa Catarina and northern Rio Grande do Sul are also under alert, mentioning Ijuí, Erechim, Passo Fundo, Lajeado, Caxias do Sul, and Porto Alegre.
In southern Rio Grande do Sul and northern Paraná, instability decreases, but the possibility of rain persists. Nighttime temperatures remain low in Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná; Curitiba may reach 22°C, and Porto Alegre is expected to have a maximum of up to 18°C. Conversely, highs in northern Paraná show a tendency to rise.
In the North, rain intensifies in western Amazonas, with isolated showers and thunderstorms predicted. Acre, central Amazonas, and the coastal strip between Amapá and Pará may also rain, while Roraima may have isolated precipitation. Tocantins, south-central Pará, and southeast Amazonas will maintain few clouds and high heat, with a trend of temperature increase in central-east Amazonas and western Pará.
In the Northeast, rain is mainly restricted to the coastal strip, with forecasts of showers on the northern coast of Bahia (including Salvador), the coast of Sergipe, and areas of the coast and northwest of Maranhão. Isolated rain is also possible on the east coast of Rio Grande do Norte and northern Paraíba. The interior remains dry and hot in certain areas of Maranhão, Piauí, Pernambuco, and Bahia.
The Central-West should have few clouds over most of the territory, except for southern Mato Grosso do Sul, which may have isolated rain. The general scenario is one of high temperatures, with expectations of increasing heat in the coming days.
In the Southeast, the weather remains stable across most of the region. Espírito Santo, Rio de Janeiro, and central-east São Paulo will have greater cloud cover, while western and northern São Paulo and areas of central-west and northern Minas Gerais (including the Triângulo Mineiro) will have little cloudiness. In southern São Paulo, near Paraná, the chances of isolated rain and thunderstorms return, with a yellow alert for potential storm danger in Iguape, Registro, and Cananéia. The interior of the Southeast continues with a trend of high temperatures, especially in western and northern São Paulo and in Minas Gerais.
The regional contrast defines the forecast: while the interior of the North, Northeast, Central-West, and Southeast faces heat and low humidity in various points, the South concentrates the conditions most favorable for storms, maintaining an unstable environment due to low pressure, troughs, and moisture transport.
