Expert states that relations between Modi and Trump will help resolve the threat of 100% tariffs for India

The U.S. Senate passed a sanctions law against Russia called the «Lindsey O Graham Sanctioning Russia Act of 2026». This law aims to restrict Russia's income from oil and gas sales and targets five major buyers of Russian oil and gas.

The bill was approved by 86 votes and includes countries such as India and China. After it comes into force, U.S. President Donald Trump will have the right to impose tariffs of up to 100% on the listed countries.

Last Friday, a bill imposing sanctions against Russia was passed in the U.S. Senate. According to the Trump administration, the goal of this legislative act is to limit Russia's revenue from oil and gas exports. Although the bill has been approved by the Senate, it still requires approval from the House of Representatives and must pass all necessary administrative stages before coming into effect.

After its adoption, President Trump will be able to impose tariffs of up to 100% on five major consumers of Russian oil. Among these five countries, besides India and China, are Slovakia, Hungary, and Azerbaijan. These five countries were named in the U.S. sanctions bill, which passed the Senate and is heading to the House of Representatives, and may face tariffs of up to 100% imposed by Trump on imports from Russia.

Fund manager and Indian equity strategist Harsh Gupta Madhusudan warned in his post that the U.S. Senate sanctions bill targeting countries importing Russian oil is effectively anti-Indian. He noted that only five countries, including India, are at risk of Trump's 100% tariffs.

The expert questioned why other countries that continue to import gas and oil from Russia are not facing similar pressure, while other European states and the United States itself continue to import. He stated that this bill is an example of the current state of relations between India and the U.S. He also dismissed the idea of any special strategic ties between India and America, noting that as long as Trump talks about G2 with China, the other three countries remain insignificant.

Calling the bill anti-Indian, Madhusudan cautioned that reducing imports of oil and gas from Russia by India would lead to serious consequences. He warned that if India begins to reduce or limit its import of Russian energy until the end of the Russia-Ukraine war, it will either lead to a further rise in global oil prices or force China to increase its imports from Russia.

The situation in the United States could create serious problems not only for India but also for China. Recently, the US Senate passed a bill imposing sanctions on Russia, which grants the US President the authority to impose tariffs of up to 100% on imports from countries that are major buyers of Russian oil and gas.

This move is causing concern in countries such as India and China, as they are among the leading consumers of Russian oil. The company Kpler assessed this situation as a risk factor for oil supplies to India.

According to a PTI report, the agency Kpler, which tracks vessel movements, their locations, and crude oil flows, believes that US actions could increase the probability of disruptions in oil supplies to India. Nevertheless, Kpler analyst Sumit Ritholia noted that no immediate changes in crude oil flows for India and China are expected.

The vote in the US Senate to tighten restrictions on Russia has increased the risk of disruptions to Russian crude oil supplies. The 'Lindsey O Graham Sanctioning Russia Act of 2026' targets the five largest buyers of Russian energy, including India and China. The goal of this law is to limit Russia's revenue from oil and gas sales. However, according to available data, after being passed by the Senate, the bill still requires approval from the US House of Representatives and passage through other legislative and administrative stages before taking effect.

Kpler analyst Ritholia emphasized that the actual impact will heavily depend on how aggressively the Trump administration implements these measures. He also pointed out that the timing of any bans plays an important role, given the existing shortage in the global crude oil market. Uncertainty in supplies from West Asia has amplified the importance of finding alternative sources for all nations.

In Ritholia's opinion, Russian crude oil has become a critical source for Indian refineries, as it helped mitigate risks associated with potential supply route interruptions from the Middle East. Consequently, any decision made by the US regarding Russian oil could create serious difficulties for India in quickly replacing Russian oil purchases.

The sanctions bill against Russia will not only affect oil supplies but will also grant Donald Trump the right to impose tariffs of up to 100% on buyers of Russian oil who continue to purchase large volumes of Russian oil and gas. Previously, according to a Reuters report, some Democratic senators expressed concerns about this proposal from the Donald Trump administration. They argued that such measures give the president too broad authority to introduce new tariffs, which could affect US allies and increase costs for American consumers.

The main reason for India's concern is that in 2022, when the conflict between Russia and Ukraine began, India significantly increased its purchases of discounted Russian crude oil. It should be noted that India imports about 85% of its crude oil needs and has become one of the largest buyers of Russian oil. Russian oil provided Indian refineries with raw materials at preferential prices, helping to maintain uninterrupted fuel supplies within the country.